Week in Review — Saturday, March 28, 2026

📊Rate Scorecard — 30-Yr Fixed (Daily Tracker)

Mon 3/23

6.37%

▲ +15 bps

Tue 3/24

6.36%

— -1 bps

Wed 3/25

6.43%

▲ +7 bps

Thu 3/26

6.45%

▲ +2 bps

Fri 3/27

6.49%

▲ +4 bps

Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS locked in at 6.38% for the week ending March 26, but daily trackers show rates continued climbing through Friday, touching 6.49% by end of week. That 27-basis-point spread between Monday's open and Friday's close tells the real story: the Iran-driven inflation anxiety isn't easing, it's compounding. The 10-year Treasury finished the week at 4.44%, its highest close since July 2025, as Brent crude held above $105/barrel. The Freddie Mac PMMS is measured mid-week, so the official +16 bps reading understates what borrowers actually saw by Friday.

📅Week Scorecard

PMMS Change

+16 bps

6.22% → 6.38% official

10-Yr Treasury

4.44%

8-month high ↑

MBA Apps

-10.5%

Refis down 15%

🕐How the Week Unfolded

The week of March 23–27 delivered exactly what the previous week had been warning about: a full-blown demand shock. With the 30-year fixed crossing 6.38% on the Freddie Mac survey and daily trackers pushing as high as 6.49% by Friday, purchase applications fell 5% week-over-week and refinance activity dropped 15%, according to the MBA. Total mortgage application volume is down a staggering 10.5% from the prior week alone. The borrowers who had been floating on rate expectations are now staring at a spread that hasn't improved in five consecutive weeks.

The macro thread remains unchanged: Brent crude is anchored above $105/barrel on Iran Strait of Hormuz disruption fears, bond traders are pricing in persistent inflation, and the 10-year Treasury has settled at yield levels that haven't been seen since last summer. One in four Americans told survey researchers this week that they have paused major purchases, including homes and vehicles, because of Iran-related economic uncertainty. That behavioral response is showing up directly in application volumes and builder sales data, which is now registering at levels last seen in 2022.

The week wasn't entirely grim. The Trump White House issued a significant executive action directing the CFPB to loosen QM safe harbor rules, potentially expanding credit access for portfolio lenders. And on the inventory side, Redfin data revealed a striking stat: there are now 630,000 more active listings than active buyers, the largest seller-to-buyer imbalance in over a decade. Buyer leverage is at its highest point in years for those who can still qualify, even if the economics of qualifying have gotten harder.

🔑 Key Takeaway

Rates are running hotter than the official weekly survey suggests. Daily trackers closed Friday at 6.49%. Until you see the 10-year yield sustainably below 4.25%, don't expect the PMMS to reverse. Plan around 6.3%–6.5% for the next several weeks.

📰This Week's Top Stories

MBA: Applications Plunge 10.5%, Refi Index Craters 15% in Rate Shock Week

The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey for the period ending March 20 showed total application volume down 10.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the Refinance Index falling 15% in a single week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index declined 5%, with the 30-year fixed rate per MBA's tracking reaching 6.43% — more than 30 basis points above late February levels. The ARM share of activity rose to 8.1% of total applications as borrowers searched for any affordability lever. Year-over-year comparisons remain positive (refi apps are still 52% above the same week in 2025), but the sequential deterioration signals how quickly sentiment shifts when rates move this fast.

Mortgage Bankers Association / HousingWire · March 25, 2026

Trump White House Orders CFPB to Expand QM Safe Harbor, Ease Points-and-Fees Caps for Portfolio Lenders

An executive action published March 18 in the Federal Register directed the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to propose amendments to Regulation Z that would tailor Ability-to-Repay and Qualified Mortgage requirements for smaller banks and credit unions, extend a broader QM safe harbor to portfolio loans held by depository institutions, and modify the current caps on QM points and fees to support affordability. The directive is designed to counteract credit tightening by reducing regulatory burden on community lenders — and in practical terms, could open more paths for non-standard borrowers at institutions that hold loans rather than selling to the secondary market. Watch for CFPB proposed rulemaking in Q2.

Federal Register / Regulations.justia.com · March 18, 2026

Redfin: 630,000 More Sellers Than Buyers — Biggest Supply-Demand Imbalance in Over a Decade

Redfin's latest market analysis found 630,000 more active sellers than active buyers in the U.S. market right now — a gap the firm called the widest in at least 10 years. Despite active inventory being up roughly 8% year-over-year nationally, new listings are down 1.4% as sellers hold out for better conditions. The imbalance is accumulating not because supply is surging, but because buyer velocity has dropped sharply at current rate levels. For brokers, this is a meaningful talking point: buyers who can qualify today are walking into more negotiating leverage than any time since 2019. The math on seller concessions, price reductions, and extended inspection periods is as favorable as it's been in years.

Redfin / ResiClub Analytics / HousingWire · March 2026

Builder Distress Deepens: 1-in-3 Cutting Prices, 2-in-3 Offering Incentives as New Home Sales Hit 4-Year Low

January 2026 new home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 — down 17.6% from December 2025 and 11.3% below the same period last year, reaching the lowest pace since 2022. Slightly more than one-third of builders reported cutting prices in February, by an average of 6%, while roughly two-thirds continued offering sales incentives including mortgage rate buydowns. February and March new home sales data have been rescheduled for delayed release (now April 29 and May 5, respectively), which means the market is effectively flying blind on current builder conditions. What we do know: builder motivation to move inventory is at multi-year highs, which creates real opportunity for brokers who work with construction-to-permanent or new-build purchase clients.

U.S. Census Bureau / NAR / The Farnsworth Group · March 2026

🏦Non-QM: What This Week Means

HELOC

Deephaven Launches First Non-QM Standalone HELOC With Bank Statement Option

Deephaven Mortgage launched its Equity Advantage HELOC this week — a standalone second-lien product for wholesale and correspondent partners that allows self-employed borrowers to qualify using 12 months of personal or business bank statements in lieu of tax returns. The second lien market is projected to surpass $100 billion in originations in 2026. For brokers with self-employed equity clients who don't want to blow up a low first-mortgage rate with a cash-out refi, this is a meaningful new tool. Check your Deephaven TPO approval status this weekend.

DSCR

Angel Oak Adds Rental AVM to DSCR Pre-Qual — Instant Rent Estimates Before You Lock

Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions announced the integration of Clear Capital's Rental AVM into its DSCR pre-qualification tool, allowing brokers to generate estimated market rents and a preliminary DSCR ratio before the deal is even locked. For investors in a volatile rate environment where cash flow math changes week to week, getting a clean pre-qual number upfront is a real efficiency gain. Angel Oak grew originations 33% in 2025 and is adding 40 account executives in 2026 — the infrastructure to handle volume is clearly there.

Market

Non-QM Hits 10–15% of Total Originations; Institutional Backing Accelerating Growth

Non-QM lending now accounts for an estimated 10–15% of total mortgage originations, with industry forecasts projecting the segment could exceed 15% of the market by year-end 2026. Bank statement loans alone represent 30–40% of non-QM production, with average borrower FICOs running 737+ and LTVs in the 60s. Growing institutional investor demand for non-QM securities is supporting spreads and pricing, meaning the asset class has matured far beyond the niche, specialty-shop world it occupied a decade ago. For brokers still thinking non-QM is a last resort, this week's data says otherwise.

Rate Play

DSCR Rates Now Match or Beat Conventional Investment Loans After Fannie/Freddie LLPAs

With DSCR rates running 5.875%–7.375% for qualified borrowers, and Fannie/Freddie loan-level price adjustments on investment properties adding 150–300 bps to agency pricing, the cost of going non-QM versus conforming on a rental is narrower than most brokers assume. A 740 FICO, 75% LTV DSCR purchase is pricing around 6.00% — in line with or better than an agency investment loan after LLPAs. For rate-shock conversations with investor clients this week, lead with this comparison. Non-QM isn't just the "fallback option" when the numbers change.

💡Going Into Monday

The single most important data event of the near term lands mid-week: the PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Given that Brent crude is holding above $105/barrel and Iran war uncertainty continues pushing energy prices higher, a hotter-than-expected PCE print is a real possibility. If February PCE comes in above 2.8% headline, expect the 10-year yield to push toward 4.50–4.55% and further reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative. A mild reading could provide the first meaningful rate relief rally in five weeks, but don't plan your lock strategy around optimism alone. Enter Monday with the more conservative scenario priced in.

There's a specific conversation worth having Monday morning with any borrower who's been asking about ARMs. The MBA data this week showed ARM share rising to 8.1% of applications as people search for any affordability edge. Before that question comes in, know the answer: the 5/1 ARM is at 5.73% versus the 30-year fixed at 6.38%. That's a 65-basis-point spread — historically, you need 100–150 bps of incentive for an ARM to make sense, because you're taking real repricing risk for minimal monthly savings. The ARM market right now is a trap for most borrowers. If your client wants rate relief, the conversation is about seller concessions, points buydowns from motivated sellers, and buying while there are 630,000 more sellers than buyers in the market — not pivoting to a 5/1 ARM for a 65-bps discount.