Morning Brief Archive

The 30-yr fixed fell to a weekly low of 6.32% Wednesday on US-Iran ceasefire news, then reversed to 6.41% after Friday's hot March CPI print of 3.3%. End-of-week rates closed at 6.37%, down 9 bps on the week. Week in Review covers the two-act rate narrative, record-low consumer sentiment, sluggish purchase apps, and Non-QM positioning for the data-heavy week ahead.

March CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year — above consensus — as energy costs tied to the Iran conflict keep inflation sticky. Michigan consumer sentiment crashed to a record low of 47.6 with 1-year inflation expectations surging to 4.8%. Non-QM spotlight covers Logan Finance's new $5M high-balance tier, Onslow Bay's $789M securitization, DSCR rate normalization, and the sector's path to 15%+ market share.

The US-Iran ceasefire triggered the first weekly rate drop since the conflict began, with the 30-yr fixed falling to 6.37% per Freddie Mac PMMS. March CPI drops tomorrow at 8:30 ET and could reverse all of today's gains if core inflation prints above consensus. Non-QM spotlight covers asset depletion loans, foreign national DSCR, 12-month bank statement programs, and the counter-cyclical case for non-QM as conventional credit tightens.

The March FOMC minutes released today confirm the Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% with tariff-driven goods inflation and Middle East energy uncertainty as the central concerns. The 30-yr fixed dipped to 6.25% as the 10-yr pulled back to 4.26%. MBA applications fell 0.8% for week ending April 3. Non-QM spotlight covers DSCR investing, P&L-only qualification, interest-only structures, and 1099 income programs.

The 10-yr Treasury reversed sharply from 4.01% to 4.34% as the flight-to-safety trade unwound in a single session. The 30-yr fixed climbed back to 6.38%. ISM Services Prices hit a 42-month high at 70.7%, killing H1 rate cut odds. Non-QM Spotlight covers asset depletion, foreign national programs, 24-month bank statement loans, and non-warrantable condo financing.

The 30-yr fixed opens at 6.34% as tariff-driven safe-haven buying pushes the 10-yr Treasury to 4.01%. Four data releases this week: ISM Services, FOMC Minutes, Jobless Claims, and Friday's CPI — the first inflation read to reflect tariff pricing. Non-QM Spotlight covers P&L qualification, DSCR pricing, interest-only structures, and bridge-to-DSCR.

The 30-yr fixed closed at 6.64% after a wild week: rates fell from 6.44% to 6.25% Monday through Thursday, then spiked 39bps on Friday's jobs beat (178K vs. 57K). The Supreme Court struck down Liberation Day tariffs 6-3 on Friday. Non-QM in Focus covers bank statement documentation strategy, asset depletion, foreign national DSCR, and non-QM jumbo.

March payrolls surged to 178,000, more than triple the 57K consensus, as unemployment held at 4.3%. The 30-yr fixed climbed to 6.64% on tariff-driven Treasury volatility before soft wage growth (+0.2% vs 0.3% expected) offered partial relief. Non-QM spotlight covers DSCR vs. conventional LLPA pricing, P&L loans for business owners, fix-and-flip capital, and near-prime borrowers.

30-yr fixed drops to 6.25% as MBS spread compression delivers rate improvement even as the 10-yr Treasury ticks up to 4.31%. Trump announces tiered steel and aluminum duties on the one-year Liberation Day anniversary. MBA applications fell 10.4% for a second straight week. March payrolls — consensus +57K — release Friday on Good Friday with bond markets closed; gap risk runs through Monday's open.

30-yr fixed hits 6.29%, down 18bps over two sessions. ISM Manufacturing expanded for the third straight month at 52.7%, but the Prices Index surged to 78.3% (highest since June 2022). PCE releases Thursday; a soft print could push rates below 6.25%. March Jobs Report drops Good Friday while bond markets are closed, creating gap risk into Monday April 7.

10-yr Treasury fell 12bps to 4.30% after Trump extended the Iran deal deadline, pulling the 30-yr fixed to 6.36%. Consumer confidence edged to 91.8 but the Expectations Index dropped to 70.9. AEI February HPA hit an all-time low of 1.1% YoY. Q2 forecasters see rates headed toward the high 5s by summer on 2-3 expected Fed cuts.

30-yr fixed at 6.47%, up 9bps since last PMMS, as the Iran war keeps oil above $120/barrel and the 10-yr Treasury retreats from a 4.48% Friday high. February's -92K jobs print has the Fed stuck. Mortgage apps fell 10.5%. Active listings up 7.9% YoY but affordability remains a problem in 97% of counties. Non-QM spotlight: asset depletion, foreign national programs, AI underwriting speed, and jumbo non-QM in high-cost markets.

30-yr fixed at 6.38% heading into the most data-heavy week of Q1. Case-Shiller and JOLTS hit Tuesday, ADP and ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday, Jobless Claims Thursday, then the March NFP print lands at 8:30 AM on Good Friday when markets are closed. Rate impact hits Monday's open. Non-QM positioning for DSCR investors, bank statement borrowers, and P&L loan demand from tariff-squeezed business owners.

Daily trackers hit 6.49% by Friday as MBA apps plunge 10.5% and refis crater 15%. White House orders CFPB to expand QM safe harbor. Redfin reports 630K more sellers than buyers. Builders cut prices. Non-QM holds strong: Deephaven launches non-QM HELOC, Angel Oak adds DSCR rental AVM. PCE lands next week.

30-yr fixed hits 6.38%, up 16bps on the week, as the Iran conflict drives the 10-yr Treasury to its highest since July 2025. loanDepot reenters wholesale. UWM launches Built-In Rewards. FHFA loosens insurance rules. Fannie retiring limited review for condos.