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Morning Brief Archive

Rate movements, industry headlines, and consumer & investor talking points — so you can walk into every deal sharper than the competition.

30-Yr Fixed6.64%▼ 1 bp
15-Yr Fixed6.07%▲ 6 bps
5/1 ARM6.73%▲ 8 bps
10-Yr Treasury4.70%▼ 5 bps
All Briefs 126 published
Aug
04
Tue
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · Morning Brief
Fannie and Freddie Retired Limited Condo Reviews Yesterday, Full Review Now Mandatory
Every condo project over ten units now requires a Full Review for conventional financing, which pushes a much larger pool of borrowers toward portfolio and non-QM options. Meanwhile the 5/1 ARM jumped 8 basis points to 6.73% and is now pricing above the 30-year fixed, a 31 basis point reversal in two sessions.
30-Yr: 6.64% 15-Yr: 6.07% ARM: 6.73% 10-Yr: 4.70%
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Aug
02
Sun
Sunday, August 2, 2026 · Week Ahead
Three Regional Presidents Dissent for a Hike as Fed Holds for a Fifth Straight Meeting
The Fed left the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9-to-3 vote with all three dissenters wanting a quarter-point increase, and June core PCE eased to 3.3% while still sitting 130 basis points above target. Friday's July jobs report is the only release this week with the weight to move rate sheets, and the 5/1 ARM has moved back inside the 30-year fixed by 22 basis points.
30-Yr: 6.65% 15-Yr: 6.01% ARM: 6.43% 10-Yr: 4.74%
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Jul
30
Thu
Thursday, July 30, 2026 · Morning Brief
Three Regional Fed Presidents Dissent in Favor of a Hike, First Unified Triple Dissent Since 2016
The Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9-to-3 vote with all three dissenters wanting a quarter-point increase, and Chair Warsh refused to call it a pause. Rate sheets improved anyway as lenders unwound pre-FOMC padding, with the 5/1 ARM giving back 41 basis points to 6.58% ahead of this morning's June core PCE print.
30-Yr: 6.65% 15-Yr: 5.88% ARM: 6.58% 10-Yr: 4.70%
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Jul
29
Wed
Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · Morning Brief
Warsh Fed Faces Evenly Split Committee as July Rate Decision Lands This Afternoon
Rates rose across the board ahead of the 2:00 p.m. FOMC statement, with the 30-year fixed at 6.69% and the 5/1 ARM gapping 53 basis points to 6.99% as lenders pulled short-duration pricing. The dissent count matters more than the decision given the committee's nine-to-nine split, and June PCE follows tomorrow morning.
30-Yr: 6.69% 15-Yr: 6.07% ARM: 6.99% 10-Yr: 4.61%
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Jul
26
Sun
Sunday, July 26, 2026 · Week Ahead
FOMC Wednesday and June PCE Thursday Headline the Biggest Catalyst Week of the Summer as Hike Odds Hit 36%
The 30-year fixed pushed to 6.70%, a one-year high, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.69% after Brent crude broke $100 on renewed Iran escalation. Back-to-back FOMC and PCE prints land Wednesday and Thursday, while combined housing inventory quietly hit a twelve-year high of 5.2 months.
30-Yr: 6.70% 15-Yr: 6.04% ARM: 6.21% 10-Yr: 4.69%
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Jul
25
Sat
Saturday, July 25, 2026 · Week in Review
30-Year Fixed Climbs to 6.58%, Highest Since August 2025, as Fed Hike Odds Jump to 46% Ahead of Next Week's FOMC and PCE
Rates finished a fourth straight week higher on Middle East tensions and oil above $100 a barrel, with the 10-year Treasury jumping 13 bps to 4.68%. Next week's back-to-back FOMC decision and June PCE report is the biggest catalyst window of the summer.
30-Yr: 6.58% 15-Yr: 5.96% ARM: 6.06% 10-Yr: 4.68%
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Jul
24
Fri
Friday, July 24, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Hold at 6.58% to Close a Fourth Straight Week Higher
Rates close a fourth straight week higher at 6.58%. New and existing home sales data show a market adjusting to elevated rates, not collapsing under them.
30-Yr: 6.58% 15-Yr: 5.96% ARM: 6.06% 10-Yr: 4.68%
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Jul
23
Thu
Thursday, July 23, 2026 · Morning Brief
Freddie Mac: 30-Year Fixed Hits 6.58%, Highest Since August 2025
Freddie Mac's weekly survey hits 6.58%, the highest since August 2025, as rate-hike odds for later this year jump from 12% to as high as 46% amid oil above $100 a barrel.
30-Yr: 6.58% 15-Yr: 5.96% ARM: 6.06% 10-Yr: 4.65%
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Jul
22
Wed
Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · Morning Brief
Oil Prices Top $100 a Barrel for the First Time in Months
Oil tops $100 a barrel for the first time in months, and rates tick up to 6.57% as markets increasingly price in a more hawkish Fed tone heading into next week's decision.
30-Yr: 6.57% 15-Yr: 5.95% ARM: 6.03% 10-Yr: 4.61%
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Jul
21
Tue
Tuesday, July 21, 2026 · Morning Brief
Oil Prices Continue Climbing as Middle East Tensions Show No Signs of Easing
The 10-year Treasury climbs to 4.58% as oil prices continue rising on unresolved Middle East tensions, a slow-building story with real implications for next week's Fed meeting.
30-Yr: 6.56% 15-Yr: 5.95% ARM: 6.01% 10-Yr: 4.58%
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Jul
20
Mon
Monday, July 20, 2026 · Morning Brief
Markets Turn Attention to Next Week's FOMC Meeting as the Data Calendar Goes Quiet
Rates hold near 6.56% as attention turns to next week's FOMC meeting. Rising Middle East tensions are starting to push oil prices higher, a genuine wildcard for inflation.
30-Yr: 6.56% 15-Yr: 5.94% ARM: 6.00% 10-Yr: 4.56%
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Jul
19
Sun
Sunday, July 19, 2026 · Week Ahead
FOMC Meeting Now Just Over a Week Away, Positioning Likely to Dominate This Week
We open the week at 6.56% with the FOMC meeting just over a week out. Oil prices and Middle East developments are a real wildcard heading into the decision.
30-Yr: 6.56% 15-Yr: 5.94% ARM: 6.55% 10-Yr: 4.55%
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Jul
18
Sat
Saturday, July 18, 2026 · Week in Review
Rates Hit Multi-Month Highs Despite a Week That Opened With Cooling Inflation Data
Rates hit multi-month highs this week despite cooling inflation data, closing at 6.56% to 6.69% depending on the measure. The July 28-29 FOMC meeting is now under two weeks away.
30-Yr: 6.56% 15-Yr: 5.94% ARM: 6.55% 10-Yr: 4.55%
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Jul
17
Fri
Friday, July 17, 2026 · Morning Brief
MBA Index Shows 30-Year Rate at 6.69%, Highest Since August 22, 2025
MBA's index shows rates at 6.69%, the highest since August 22, 2025, despite this week's cooler CPI report. Continued inflation concerns are limiting near-term relief.
30-Yr: 6.56% 15-Yr: 5.94% ARM: 6.55% 10-Yr: 4.55%
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Jul
16
Thu
Thursday, July 16, 2026 · Morning Brief
Freddie Mac: 30-Year Jumps to 6.55% Despite This Week's Cooler Inflation Data
Freddie Mac's weekly survey jumps to 6.55% despite this week's cooler CPI report, as Treasury supply concerns and cautious Fed commentary outweigh the good inflation news.
30-Yr: 6.55% 15-Yr: 5.93% ARM: 6.54% 10-Yr: 4.53%
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Jul
15
Wed
Wednesday, July 15, 2026 · Morning Brief
Fed Officials Push Back on Reading Too Much Into Yesterday's Cool CPI Print
Yesterday's CPI-driven rally partially fades as Fed officials push back on reading too much into a single month of cooler inflation data. Rates tick back to 6.47%.
30-Yr: 6.47% 15-Yr: 5.85% ARM: 6.48% 10-Yr: 4.48%
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Jul
14
Tue
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 · Morning Brief
June CPI Cools More Than Expected to 3.5%, Core Inflation at 2.6%
June CPI cools more than expected to 3.5% annually, core at 2.6%, and rates rally hard to 6.44% in the most encouraging inflation print in months.
30-Yr: 6.44% 15-Yr: 5.78% ARM: 6.43% 10-Yr: 4.44%
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Jul
13
Mon
Monday, July 13, 2026 · Morning Brief
June CPI Report Tomorrow Carries Outsized Weight After Weeks of Hawkish Data
Rates hold firm at 6.49% ahead of tomorrow's June CPI report, the single most important data point of the month given recent hawkish Fed signals.
30-Yr: 6.49% 15-Yr: 5.85% ARM: 6.50% 10-Yr: 4.49%
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Jul
12
Sun
Sunday, July 12, 2026 · Week Ahead
June CPI Report Tuesday Is the Week's Defining Event
We open the week at 6.50% with Tuesday's June CPI report shaping up as the week's defining event, especially given how hawkish recent Fed communications have leaned.
30-Yr: 6.50% 15-Yr: 5.80% ARM: 6.51% 10-Yr: 4.48%
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Jul
11
Sat
Saturday, July 11, 2026 · Week in Review
Rates Climb to 6.50%, Fully Reversing Two Weeks of Post-Jobs-Report Relief
Rates climb to 6.50% for the week, fully reversing two weeks of relief through a steady accumulation of hawkish data. Next Tuesday's June CPI report is now the key event.
30-Yr: 6.50% 15-Yr: 5.80% ARM: 6.51% 10-Yr: 4.48%
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Jul
10
Fri
Friday, July 10, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Close the Week at 6.50%, a Full Reversal of the Prior Week's Rally
Rates close the week at 6.50%, a full reversal of the prior week's rally, as buyers face rising costs amid a genuinely uncertain rate environment.
30-Yr: 6.50% 15-Yr: 5.80% ARM: 6.51% 10-Yr: 4.48%
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Jul
9
Thu
Thursday, July 9, 2026 · Morning Brief
FOMC Minutes Reveal Less Division Than Hoped, Rates Reprice Higher
Freddie Mac's weekly survey jumps to 6.49% after FOMC minutes showed less dovish appetite than hoped, erasing most of the prior week's post-jobs-report rally.
30-Yr: 6.49% 15-Yr: 5.85% ARM: 6.47% 10-Yr: 4.47%
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Jul
8
Wed
Wednesday, July 8, 2026 · Morning Brief
June FOMC Minutes Due This Afternoon Could Reveal How Divided the Committee Really Is
Rates hold at 6.46% ahead of this afternoon's FOMC meeting minutes, which could reveal how divided the committee really is about a 2026 hike.
30-Yr: 6.46% 15-Yr: 5.82% ARM: 6.45% 10-Yr: 4.46%
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Jul
7
Tue
Tuesday, July 7, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Tick Up to 6.45% as Strong ISM Services Data Complicates the Cooling Narrative
Rates tick up to 6.45% as a stronger-than-expected ISM services report complicates the cooling-labor-market story from last week's jobs miss.
30-Yr: 6.45% 15-Yr: 5.81% ARM: 6.44% 10-Yr: 4.46%
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Jul
6
Mon
Monday, July 6, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Hold at 6.43% as Markets Reopen Post-Holiday
Markets reopen post-holiday with rates flat at 6.43%, confirming last week's post-jobs-report rally has held. A quiet first half of the week is expected.
30-Yr: 6.43% 15-Yr: 5.79% ARM: 6.42% 10-Yr: 4.45%
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Jul
5
Sun
Sunday, July 5, 2026 · Week Ahead
Rates Open the Week Holding Last Week's Gains at 6.44%
We open the week holding at 6.44% with a genuinely light data calendar. Watch for Fed commentary reacting to last week's weak jobs report.
30-Yr: 6.44% 15-Yr: 5.80% ARM: 6.41% 10-Yr: 4.45%
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Jul
4
Sat
Saturday, July 4, 2026 · Week in Review
June Jobs Report Misses Badly at +57,000, Giving the Fed's Doves New Ammunition
Rates close a holiday-shortened week at 6.44%, down sharply from 6.53%, after June's jobs report missed badly at just 57,000. The best weekly rate improvement since before June's FOMC meeting.
30-Yr: 6.44% 15-Yr: 5.80% ARM: 6.41% 10-Yr: 4.45%
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Jul
3
Fri
Friday, July 3, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Hold Near 6.44% in Thin Pre-Holiday Trading
Rates hold steady at 6.44% in thin pre-holiday trading as yesterday's post-jobs-report rally holds overnight heading into the July 4th weekend.
30-Yr: 6.44% 15-Yr: 5.80% ARM: 6.41% 10-Yr: 4.45%
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Jul
2
Thu
Thursday, July 2, 2026 · Morning Brief
June Payrolls Miss Badly at +57,000, Rates Rally Hard on the News
June payrolls miss badly at just 57,000 versus a 115,000 consensus, and rates rally hard, with the 30-year dropping to 6.43%, the best level in weeks, heading into the holiday.
30-Yr: 6.43% 15-Yr: 5.79% ARM: 6.40% 10-Yr: 4.44%
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Jul
1
Wed
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Slide to 6.49% for a Third Straight Session Ahead of Tomorrow's Jobs Report
Rates slide to 6.49% for a third straight session as ADP and ISM data set the stage for tomorrow's early jobs report, moved up ahead of the July 4th holiday.
30-Yr: 6.49% 15-Yr: 5.83% ARM: 6.46% 10-Yr: 4.49%
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Jun
30
Tue
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Ease to 6.51% as Q2 Closes Out in a Familiar Range
Rates ease to 6.51% as Q2 closes out largely in the same 6.3%-6.6% range it spent most of the quarter in. Thursday's early jobs report is the first big Q3 catalyst.
30-Yr: 6.51% 15-Yr: 5.86% ARM: 6.47% 10-Yr: 4.50%
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Jun
29
Mon
Monday, June 29, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Hold Near 6.52% as Markets Wait Out a Compressed Holiday Week
Rates hold near 6.52% in a quiet start to a holiday-compressed week, with Thursday's early jobs report standing as the week's lone major catalyst.
30-Yr: 6.52% 15-Yr: 5.87% ARM: 6.49% 10-Yr: 4.51%
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Jun
28
Sun
Sunday, June 28, 2026 · Week Ahead
June Jobs Report Moves Up to Thursday Ahead of the July 4th Holiday
We open the week near 6.53% with June's jobs report moved up to Thursday ahead of the July 4th holiday. A soft print would be the first real counterweight to last week's hot inflation data.
30-Yr: 6.53% 15-Yr: 5.88% ARM: 6.50% 10-Yr: 4.52%
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Jun
27
Sat
Saturday, June 27, 2026 · Week in Review
Hot May PCE Confirms the Fed's Hawkish Pivot, Ending Hopes of a Quick Reversal
Rates finish the week at 6.53%, up from 6.48%, after a hot PCE print confirmed the Fed's hawkish pivot. A broker survey shows DSCR loans nearing 30% of all non-QM originations.
30-Yr: 6.53% 15-Yr: 5.88% ARM: 6.50% 10-Yr: 4.52%
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Jun
26
Fri
Friday, June 26, 2026 · Morning Brief
May Core PCE Hits 3.4%, Highest Since October 2023, Confirming the Fed's Hawkish Pivot
May core PCE hits 3.4%, the hottest since October 2023, and rates jump to 6.53% in response, reversing the week's earlier relief in a single morning.
30-Yr: 6.53% 15-Yr: 5.88% ARM: 6.50% 10-Yr: 4.52%
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Jun
25
Thu
Thursday, June 25, 2026 · Morning Brief
Freddie Mac: 30-Year Fixed Averages 6.49%, Little Changed This Week
Freddie Mac's weekly survey holds at 6.49% as Iran peace talks send mixed signals on oil prices. Tomorrow's May PCE report is the real test for where rates head next.
30-Yr: 6.49% 15-Yr: 5.84% ARM: 6.49% 10-Yr: 4.46%
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Jun
24
Wed
Wednesday, June 24, 2026 · Morning Brief
AD Mortgage Closes Fourth Non-Agency Securitization of the Year, Deal Twice Oversubscribed
AD Mortgage closes its fourth non-agency securitization of the year, oversubscribed two times over, as rates tick back up to 6.47% ahead of tomorrow's PCE report.
30-Yr: 6.47% 15-Yr: 5.80% ARM: 6.50% 10-Yr: 4.48%
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Jun
23
Tue
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 · Morning Brief
DSCR Loans Now Make Up Roughly 28-29% of All Non-QM Originations
DSCR loans now make up roughly 28-29% of all non-QM originations as rates ease to 6.44% for a second straight day. Thursday's May PCE report remains the week's key catalyst.
30-Yr: 6.44% 15-Yr: 5.86% ARM: 6.48% 10-Yr: 4.46%
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Jun
22
Mon
Monday, June 22, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Ease Modestly as Markets Digest Last Week's Hawkish Fed Pivot
The 30-year eases to 6.47% as markets digest last week's hawkish FOMC dot plot, with nine of eighteen officials now projecting a 2026 hike. A new broker survey shows non-QM demand accelerating heading into Thursday's May PCE report.
30-Yr: 6.47% 15-Yr: 5.90% ARM: 6.45% 10-Yr: 4.47%
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Jun
21
Sun
Sunday, June 21, 2026 · Week Ahead
After Warsh's Hawkish Debut, All Eyes Turn to Thursday's PCE as the Next Real Test
Rates open the week near 6.49% with the higher-for-longer bias from last week's FOMC still firmly in place. The calendar is light until Thursday's May PCE report, the next real catalyst, while June's wholesale Non-QM pricing specials head into their final week.
30-Yr: 6.49% 15-Yr: 5.88% ARM: 6.52% 10-Yr: 4.49%
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Jun
20
Sat
Saturday, June 20, 2026 · Week in Review
Warsh's Debut FOMC Flips the Dot Plot Hawkish, Rates Finish the Week Up at 6.48%
Rates opened near 6.44%, spiked to 6.51% on a hawkish Summary of Economic Projections, then eased to 6.48% in thin Juneteenth trading. Nine of eighteen FOMC members now project a 2026 hike, with cuts pushed to 2027 and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge due next Thursday.
30-Yr: 6.48% 15-Yr: 5.87% ARM: 6.50% 10-Yr: 4.48%
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Jun
19
Fri
Friday, June 19, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Ease to 6.48% as Holiday-Thinned Trading Lets Thursday's Overreaction Unwind
With bond markets closed for Juneteenth, the rate sheet carried Thursday's late drift rather than fresh trading. The 30-year eased 3 bps to 6.48% while mortgage applications jumped 10.8% week over week, the largest gain since February, even with rates elevated.
30-Yr: 6.48% 15-Yr: 5.87% ARM: 6.50% 10-Yr: 4.48%
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Jun
18
Thu
Thursday, June 18, 2026 · Morning Brief
Fed Holds but Flips Hawkish: Dot Plot Now Shows Nine Members Projecting a 2026 Hike, Rates Reprice to 6.51%
The morning after the FOMC, rates are climbing as the bond market digests a Fed with no cut on the calendar until 2027. The 30-year jumped to 6.51% and the 10-year firmed to 4.50% after nine of eighteen members penciled in a 2026 hike and the PCE forecast was lifted to 3.6%.
30-Yr: 6.51% 15-Yr: 5.90% ARM: 6.47% 10-Yr: 4.50%
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Jun
17
Wed
Wednesday, June 17, 2026 · Morning Brief
FOMC Decision Day: A Hold Is 97% Priced, So the Dot Plot and Warsh's First Presser Carry All the Risk
Rates drifted up to 6.43% into this afternoon's 2 PM decision, with the 10-year at 4.47%. The hold is a formality; the dot plot is the event, and after 4.2% CPI the risk leans hawkish. This is an asymmetric lock day, so lock floating files this morning rather than into the announcement.
30-Yr: 6.43% 15-Yr: 5.78% ARM: 6.51% 10-Yr: 4.47%
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Jun
16
Tue
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 · Morning Brief
Warsh's First FOMC Opens Today With a Hold Locked In and the Dot Plot Doing the Talking
Rates are holding their breath ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision: the 30-year eased to 6.40% while the 10-year ticked up to 4.45%. With a hold near 97% priced, the new dot plot and Warsh's first press conference are the only things that move rates this week.
30-Yr: 6.40% 15-Yr: 5.75% ARM: 6.55% 10-Yr: 4.45%
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Jun
15
Mon
Monday, June 15, 2026 · Morning Brief
Warsh's FOMC Opens Tuesday With a Hold Locked In and the Dot Plot Doing All the Talking
Rates opened the week with a quiet rally nobody trusts: the 30-year slipped to 6.44% and the 10-year led lower to 4.42% on a flight-to-safety bid. With Wednesday's hold near 97% priced, the new dot plot and Warsh's press conference are the only things that move rates this week.
30-Yr: 6.44% 15-Yr: 5.79% ARM: 6.53% 10-Yr: 4.42%
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Jun
14
Sun
Sunday, June 14, 2026 · Week Ahead
Fed Week Headlines It All: A Hold Is Locked In, So Wednesday's Dot Plot Decides Where Rates Go
Rates enter the week near 6.50% after a 4.2% CPI spike and Friday's Iran-driven relief. The June 16-17 FOMC is the only catalyst that matters, with a hawkish dot plot the higher-probability risk. Monday and Tuesday are the cleanest lock window before a Juneteenth-shortened week.
30-Yr: 6.50% 15-Yr: 5.84% ARM: 6.58% 10-Yr: 4.52%
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Jun
13
Sat
Saturday, June 13, 2026 · Week in Review
CPI Spikes to a Three-Year-High 4.2%, Rates Finish the Week Up at 6.50% Heading Into Warsh's First FOMC
Rates opened the week near 6.45%, jumped on Wednesday's 4.2% CPI print, then eased Friday on Iran peace headlines to close around 6.50%, up about 5 bps net. With the June 16-17 FOMC essentially a 97% hold, all eyes turn to Warsh's first dot plot and press conference as chair.
30-Yr: 6.50% 15-Yr: 5.84% ARM: 6.58% 10-Yr: 4.52%
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Jun
12
Fri
Friday, June 12, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Catch a Pre-FOMC Breather, Easing to 6.50% as Iran Peace Headlines Knock Oil Lower
The 30-year eased about 3 bps to 6.50% and the 10-year backed off to 4.52% after Trump floated an Iran peace framework that dropped crude and trimmed the inflation premium. The relief is thin and sits on top of Wednesday's 4.2% CPI, so with the June 16-17 FOMC next week, this is a lock window rather than a trend change.
30-Yr: 6.50% 15-Yr: 5.84% ARM: 6.58% 10-Yr: 4.52%
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Jun
11
Thu
Thursday, June 11, 2026 · Morning Brief
May CPI Jumps to 4.2%, Hottest in Three Years, as Rates Reprice Up to 6.53% Six Days Before the FOMC Decision
The 30-year fixed repriced up roughly 12 bps to 6.53% after Wednesday's hot CPI print landed at a three-year high, with the 10-year Treasury holding near 4.55% as lenders widened spreads. With a June 16-17 Fed hold now 96% priced in, floating borrowers face upside risk and very little reward, making this the week to have the lock conversation.
30-Yr: 6.53% 15-Yr: 5.87% ARM: 6.61% 10-Yr: 4.55%
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Jun
10
Wed
Wednesday, June 10, 2026 · Morning Brief
May CPI Lands at 4.2%, Hottest in Three Years, as Rates Reprice Higher Into a Near-Certain Fed Hold
This morning's CPI printed 4.2% year over year, the fastest in three years, pushing the 30-year up roughly 10 bps to 6.51% while the 10-year held near 4.55%. Energy drove more than 60% of the gain, and a June 16-17 Fed hold is now about 96% priced in. Lock floating files early, because intraday reprices are likely.
30-Yr: 6.51% 15-Yr: 5.85% ARM: 6.62% 10-Yr: 4.55%
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Jun
9
Tue
Tuesday, June 9, 2026 · Morning Brief
Hot May Jobs Report Lifts Rates and December Hike Odds to 70% as CPI Looms Tomorrow and AD Mortgage Debuts Apex Prime Non-QM Tier
The 30-year fixed ticks up to 6.41% and the 5/1 ARM jumps 34 bps to 6.66% as the 10-year Treasury tests a two-week high near 4.55%, all driven by Friday's 172K payrolls beat against an 85K forecast. May CPI lands tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, six days before the FOMC decision, leaving floating borrowers exposed. AD Mortgage launches a premier Apex Prime Non-QM tier for 680-plus FICO borrowers.
30-Yr: 6.41% 15-Yr: 5.81% ARM: 6.66% 10-Yr: 4.55%
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Jun
8
Mon
Monday, June 8, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Ease to 6.45% on a Pre-CPI Bid as Hot Jobs Keep December Hike Odds Near 70%
The 30-year slips roughly 7 bps to 6.45% and the 10-year to 4.49% as bonds catch a quiet bid before Wednesday's CPI. Friday's 172K payrolls beat keeps the Fed hawkish, so the dip reads as a pause rather than a trend. Monday and Tuesday are the week's cleanest lock window.
30-Yr: 6.45% 15-Yr: 5.79% ARM: 6.52% 10-Yr: 4.49%
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Jun
7
Sun
Sunday, June 7, 2026 · Week Ahead
CPI Wednesday Headlines a Pivotal Week as Hot Jobs Reopen the Rate-Hike Debate Before the June FOMC
Rates enter the week at 6.52% after Friday's 172K jobs beat lifted December hike odds toward 70%. May CPI Wednesday is the defining catalyst, with risk skewed higher on oil near $93, and the June 16-17 FOMC looms the following week. Treat the first half of the week as a lock window.
30-Yr: 6.52% 15-Yr: 5.80% ARM: 6.40% 10-Yr: 4.46%
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Jun
6
Sat
Saturday, June 6, 2026 · Week in Review
May Jobs Report at +172K Reopens the Rate-Hike Debate Heading Into Warsh's First FOMC
The week closed with the 30-year at 6.52% and the 10-year at 4.46% after Friday's 172K payrolls blew past an 85K forecast, reviving hike talk and lifting December odds toward 70%. All eyes now turn to next Wednesday's May CPI, the last major print before the June 16-17 FOMC.
30-Yr: 6.52% 15-Yr: 5.89% ARM: 6.34% 10-Yr: 4.46%
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Jun
5
Fri
Friday, June 5, 2026 · Morning Brief
FHFA Advances VantageScore 4.0 at Fannie and Freddie as May Jobs Report Drops Today and Non-QM Spreads Hit Tightest Level Since Early 2024
The 30-year fixed holds at 6.52% on Jobs Day Friday as the 10-year Treasury eases to 4.47% ahead of May Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 AM ET. The 15-year drops 11 bps to 5.72% while the 5/1 ARM jumps 15 bps to 6.49%, with mixed rate action reflecting genuine pre-report uncertainty. Non-QM top-tier spreads are compressing to as little as 50 bps over conforming, and FHFA is moving both GSEs into VantageScore 4.0 in a historic underwriting shift.
30-Yr: 6.52% 15-Yr: 5.72% ARM: 6.49% 10-Yr: 4.47%
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Jun
4
Thu
Thursday, June 4, 2026 · Morning Brief
ADP Private Payrolls Beat at 122K, Strongest Since January 2025, Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
The 30-year holds at 6.52% with the 10-year at 4.49% as a firmer-than-expected ADP print sets a hawkish tone into Friday's May nonfarm payrolls. A strong labor read would push back on rate-cut hopes just as the market eyes next week's CPI and the mid-June FOMC.
30-Yr: 6.52% 15-Yr: 5.88% ARM: 6.34% 10-Yr: 4.49%
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Jun
3
Wed
Wednesday, June 3, 2026 · Morning Brief
Rates Reverse Tuesday's Dip to 6.55% as Iran Oil Risk and Sticky Inflation Reset Rate Cut Expectations Into 2027
The 30-year fixed climbs back to 6.55% Wednesday as the 10-year Treasury rises to 4.46%, erasing most of Tuesday's relief. Iran-driven oil prices above $90, core PCE at 3.2%, and a Fed on hold at 3.50%–3.75% are keeping rates elevated. ADP tomorrow and NFP Friday are the week's remaining rate catalysts.
30-Yr: 6.55% 15-Yr: 5.87% ARM: 6.25% 10-Yr: 4.46%
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Jun
2
Tue
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 · Morning Brief
Fed Moves to Loosen Bank Mortgage Rules as Rates Dip to 6.45% and NFP Looms Friday as the Week's Biggest Rate Catalyst
The 30-year fixed falls 11 basis points to 6.45% Tuesday as bond markets consolidate after Monday's Iran-driven spike. The Federal Reserve is moving to loosen bank mortgage lending capital rules, while Newfi adds crypto reserve eligibility to its DSCR program. Friday's May Nonfarm Payrolls is the rate event of the week.
30-Yr: 6.45% 15-Yr: 5.74% ARM: 6.35% 10-Yr: 4.44%
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Jun
1
Mon
Monday, June 1, 2026 · Morning Brief
Non-QM Market Eyes $150 Billion in 2026 as Non-Agency Issuance Surges 25% and Jobs Report Looms Friday
The 30-year fixed opens June at 6.56% as elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty keep rates near a 9-month high, while the 10-year Treasury ticks up to 4.47%. Friday's May Nonfarm Payrolls is the week's defining event, and the direction it takes rates will set the tone heading into June's back-to-back CPI and FOMC catalysts.
30-Yr: 6.56% 15-Yr: 5.79% ARM: 6.45% 10-Yr: 4.47%
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May
31
Sun
Sunday, May 31, 2026 · Week Ahead
Non-QM Securitization Up 25%, Jobs Report on Deck: What June's First Week Means for Rates and Your Pipeline
The 30-year fixed edged down to 6.33% as May closes out, and the 10-year Treasury holds at 4.44% following Friday's soft PCE print. Friday's May Nonfarm Payrolls report is the defining event of the week, with a sub-150K print potentially pushing the 30-year toward 6.20% and a beat above 200K risking a full reversal of May's rate relief.
30-Yr: 6.33% 15-Yr: 5.79% ARM: 6.45% 10-Yr: 4.44%
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May
30
Sat
Saturday, May 30, 2026 · Week in Review
30-Year Fixed Drops to 6.38% as PCE In-Line Print Triggers Eight-Day Rally, First Real Rate Window of Late May
The 30-year fell 27 basis points from last Saturday's peak, the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.45%, and Friday's PCE landed cool enough to remove the immediate hike risk. Investor purchase share hit a five-year high, Case-Shiller confirms Sun Belt price softness, and next Friday's nonfarm payrolls is the next major catalyst that could either extend or vaporize this week's rate relief.
30-Yr: 6.38% 15-Yr: 5.80% ARM: 5.78% 10-Yr: 4.45%
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May
29
Fri
Friday, May 29, 2026 — Morning Brief
April Core PCE Lands Soft at 0.2% Monthly, Triggering the First Real Bond Rally of May as 30-Year Drops to 6.56%
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge surprised to the downside this morning, with core PCE at 0.2% MoM versus 0.3% consensus. The 10-year rallied 5 bps to 4.45% and mortgage rates dropped across the board. UWM extends 86 bps refi incentive through June 30, Lendmire expands DSCR partnerships, and Newfi integrates crypto assets into DSCR underwriting. May NFP on June 5 is the next major catalyst.
30-Yr: 6.56% 15-Yr: 5.97% ARM: 6.25% 10-Yr: 4.45%
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May
28
Thu
Thursday, May 28, 2026 — Morning Brief
April PCE Drops Friday Morning, Single Most Important Data Print of the Spring for Rate Lock Decisions
The 30-year ticks up to 6.62% as GDP, Durable Goods, and Jobless Claims hit at 8:30 AM ET ahead of tomorrow's April PCE. Non-QM tracks toward $150B in 2026, GO Mortgage launches a new AI-powered wholesale channel, and the 5/1 ARM discount widens to 34 bps, the largest gap to the 30-year since February.
30-Yr: 6.62% 15-Yr: 5.99% ARM: 6.28% 10-Yr: 4.50%
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May
27
Wed
Wednesday, May 27, 2026 — Morning Brief
Pennymac Bolsters Broker Channel With Full Non-QM Suite as Fannie Locks In 6.3% Forecast and PCE Looms Friday
The 30-year eases to 6.61% as bond markets position ahead of Friday's April PCE, the most market-moving data release of the month. Pennymac TPO launches a full Non-QM product suite for brokers, Non-QM tracks toward $150B in 2026, and conforming limits hit $832,750 for 2026.
30-Yr: 6.61% 15-Yr: 5.97% ARM: 6.27% 10-Yr: 4.50%
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May
26
Tue
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 — Morning Brief
Non-QM Originations on Track for a Record $150 Billion in 2026 as DSCR Volume Climbs 35% Year Over Year
Markets reopen post-holiday with the 30-year at 6.68% and the 10-year Treasury easing to 4.51%. Non-QM is accelerating toward its biggest year on record and the conforming-to-DSCR spread is the tightest in years. April PCE drops Friday May 29 and a soft print could deliver the best rate day of 2026.
30-Yr: 6.68% 15-Yr: 5.84% ARM: 6.27% 10-Yr: 4.51%
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May
25
Mon
Monday, May 25, 2026 — Morning Brief
PennyMac TPO Launches Full Non-QM Suite as Fannie Locks In 6.3% Through Year-End
Bond markets are closed for Memorial Day with the 30-year holding at 6.65%. PennyMac TPO just went all-in on non-QM exclusively for broker partners, Fannie Mae revised its 2026 rate forecast up to 6.3% average, and April PCE is the highest-stakes data release of the month.
30-Yr: 6.65% 15-Yr: 5.97% ARM: 6.69% 10-Yr: 4.57%
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May
24
Sun
Sunday, May 24, 2026 — Week Ahead
PCE + GDP on Deck as Rates Hold at 6.65% — Memorial Day Week's Thursday–Friday Double Header Could Reprice the Entire Market
The 30-year enters Memorial Day week at 6.65% with markets closed Monday. Tuesday brings New Residential Sales, Thursday delivers a GDP + Durable Goods + Claims triple-header, and Friday's April PCE is the single most important data point in weeks — with asymmetric upside risk given April's 3.8% CPI. A hot PCE print could push 30-year rates toward 6.75%+; a soft read could deliver the best rate-improvement day of 2026. Non-QM $150B trajectory intact, PMI deduction restored retroactive to Jan 1, 2026.
30-Yr: 6.65% 15-Yr: 5.97% ARM: 6.69% 10-Yr: 4.56%
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May
23
Sat
Saturday, May 23, 2026 — Week in Review
Moody's Aftermath Drives 30-Year to 6.65% — Warsh Confirms No 2026 Cuts, Non-QM Hits $150B Trajectory and OBBB Restores PMI Deduction
The week of May 18–23 was the most consequential rate week of 2026: the 30-year fixed surged 20 bps to 6.65% (highest since August 2025), FOMC minutes confirmed zero cuts this year, and the MBA Secondary Conference declared non-agency lending a core strategy. The One Big Beautiful Bill restores the PMI deduction starting January 1, 2026 — a genuine first-time buyer talking point. PCE and Q1 GDP land Thursday, May 28 — the next major rate inflection point.
30-Yr: 6.65% 15-Yr: 5.97% ARM: 6.69% 10-Yr: 4.57%
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May
22
Fri
Friday, May 22, 2026 — Morning Brief
UMich Hits Record-Low 44.8 and Waller Says Inflation ‘Not Headed in the Right Direction’ — 30-Year Holds at 6.65% as Housing Starts Surge to 2-Year High
The UMich final May sentiment reading crashed to a record-low 44.8 (down from 48.2 preliminary) as year-ahead inflation expectations hit 4.8%. Fed Governor Waller confirmed no pivot coming. The 10-year Treasury pulled back 7 bps to 4.56% on the data, holding rates stable heading into the holiday weekend. Lock floating files — PCE and Q1 GDP on May 28 create asymmetric downside risk.
30-Yr: 6.65% 10-Yr: 4.56% UMich 44.8 Record PCE+GDP May 28
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May
21
Thu
Thursday, May 21, 2026 — Morning Brief
Non-QM Eyes $150B as MBA Joins Rate Hike Camp — 30-Year Eases to 6.49% but FOMC Minutes Confirm No 2026 Cuts
Rates pull back a hair from Wednesday's 6.50% peak as FOMC minutes confirm Warsh's hawkish hold and the MBA officially joins the rate hike camp. Non-QM volume is targeting $150B in 2026 and GSE spread compression is providing pricing relief, but with April PCE and GDP dropping May 28, the next rate move could come fast.
30-Yr: 6.49% 15-Yr: 6.06% ARM: 6.63% 10-Yr: 4.63%
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May
20
Wed
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 — Morning Brief
30-Year Hits 6.50% — Highest Since August as Iran Conflict and Moody’s Aftermath Drive Rates to 2026 Peak
The 30-year fixed jumps 9 basis points to 6.50%, the highest level since August 2025, as the Iran conflict keeps CPI at 3.8% and markets price out all 2026 Fed cuts. FOMC minutes from Powell’s final meeting drop at 2:00 PM ET today — a hawkish surprise could push the 10-year above 4.75% and trigger afternoon reprices across the board.
30-Yr: 6.50% 10-Yr: 4.70% FOMC Min Today 2PM Iran Inflation Non-QM Open
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May
19
Tue
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 — Morning Brief
Rates Ease Slightly After Moody’s Shock as Market Braces for FOMC Minutes and Pending Home Sales Today
The 30-year fixed pulls back to 6.41% from Monday’s Moody’s-driven 6.49% high, but the reprieve is fragile with oil above $100/barrel, CPI at 3.8%, and FOMC minutes from Powell’s final divided meeting dropping Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET. NAR Pending Home Sales for April hit today at 10:00 AM ET — the first concrete read on whether buyers are adjusting to the new rate reality.
30-Yr: 6.41% 10-Yr: 4.60% Moody’s Aftermath Pending Sales Today FOMC Min Tomorrow
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May
18
Mon
Monday, May 18, 2026 — Morning Brief
Moody’s Strips U.S. of Aaa Rating — 10-Year Hits 4.63% and 30-Year Surges to 6.49% to Open the Warsh Era
Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 Friday evening — its first-ever U.S. downgrade — citing ballooning deficits projected to reach 9% of GDP by 2035. The 30-year Treasury briefly touched 5.01% overnight, and this morning's 10-year yield is running at 4.63%, up 17 bps from Friday's close. Kevin Warsh officially begins as Fed Chair today with inflation at 3.8%, no rate cuts in sight, and FOMC minutes from Powell's final meeting due Wednesday.
30-Yr: 6.49% 10-Yr: 4.63% Moody's Downgrade Warsh Era Begins FOMC Min Wed
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May
17
Sun
Sunday, May 17, 2026 — Week Ahead
Moody's Aftermath Meets Warsh's First Week — Five Days That Could Define the Rate Narrative Through Summer
The week ahead opens with the bond market absorbing Moody's first-ever U.S. credit downgrade, Kevin Warsh beginning his first full week as Fed Chair, FOMC minutes from Powell's divided final meeting dropping Wednesday, and Pending Home Sales Tuesday. Monday's open is expected to see the 10-year gap above 4.60% and the 30-year fixed above 6.49%.
Mon: Moody's Open Tue: Pending Sales Wed: FOMC Min Warsh Week 1
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May
16
Sat
Saturday, May 16, 2026 — Week in Review
Inflation One-Two Punch, Warsh's Confirmation, and a Moody's Bombshell — The Week That Reset the Rate Outlook
The week of May 11–15 delivered CPI at 3.8%, PPI at +1.4% MoM (6.0% YoY), Warsh confirmed 51–45, retail sales +0.5% (gas-driven), UMich sentiment 48.2 (miss), Powell's final day, and then — after Friday's close — Moody's first-ever U.S. downgrade from Aaa to Aa1. The 30-year moved 20 basis points over five sessions, closing at 6.45% with the 10-year at 4.58%.
30-Yr: 6.25%→6.45% CPI 3.8% PPI +1.4% Moody's Downgrade
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May
15
Fri
Friday, May 15, 2026 — Morning Brief
UMich Sentiment Falls to 48.2, 10-Year Hits 4.58% on Powell's Final Day — Lock Everything Before the Weekend
May preliminary consumer sentiment came in at 48.2, below the 49.7 consensus, dragged by gas prices and inflation anxiety. The 10-year Treasury surged to 4.58% — its highest since February 2025 — even as the 30-year fixed eased slightly to 6.45%. Powell's final day as Fed Chair brought an urgent close-of-day warning: Moody's has the U.S. on negative credit outlook with a weekend announcement possible. Lock floating files before close.
30-Yr: 6.45% 10-Yr: 4.58% UMich 48.2 Powell Last Day Lock Friday
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May
14
Thu
Thursday, May 14, 2026 — Morning Brief
PPI Scorches at +1.4% MoM — Retail Sales Gasoline-Driven as 30-Year Holds Near 6.47% Post-Reprice
Wednesday's PPI came in at +1.4% month-over-month — nearly 3x the +0.5% consensus — the hottest read since March 2022, with the 12-month rate reaching 6.0%. This morning's retail sales were +0.5%, but gasoline drove the headline while furniture, clothing, and department stores all fell. Bank of America pushed its first rate-cut call to Q3 2027. AD Mortgage priced a $407M non-QM securitization with 81% alt-doc collateral.
30-Yr: 6.47% 10-Yr: 4.50% PPI +1.4% Retail +0.5% Cut: Q3 2027
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May
13
Wed
Wednesday, May 13, 2026 — Morning Brief
Warsh Clears Senate, PPI on Deck — 30-Year Jumps to 6.45% as Post-CPI Repricing Carries Into Wednesday
Yesterday's 3.8% CPI print carried into overnight pricing, pushing the 30-year to 6.45% — up 26 bps from Tuesday's open. Kevin Warsh was confirmed to the Fed board in a 51–45 vote with his chair confirmation expected this week as Powell's term expires Friday. April PPI drops at 8:30 AM ET today; a hot read could trigger a second wave of lender reprices before noon.
30-Yr: 6.45% 10-Yr: 4.46% CPI 3.8% Warsh Confirmed PPI Today
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May
12
Tue
Tuesday, May 12, 2026 — Morning Brief
April CPI Prints 3.8% — Hottest Since May 2023 — as 30-Year Eases to 6.19% in a Pre-Reprice Window Brokers Should Lock Into Now
April CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year this morning, topping the 3.7% consensus on a surge in gasoline prices (+28.4% annually) and a hot 0.6% monthly gain. Despite the inflationary read, the 30-year fixed is opening at 6.19% — down 6 bps from yesterday — as bond markets digest the print, but mid-day reprices are a real risk if the 10-year pushes back above 4.45%. BofA officially killed its 2026 rate-cut forecast, now calling the first cut for Q3 2027.
30-Yr: 6.19% 10-Yr: 4.39% CPI 3.8% Lock Window No 2026 Cuts
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May
11
Mon
Monday, May 11, 2026 — Morning Brief
30-Year Eases to 6.33% on Pre-CPI Bond Bid — ARM Discount Tightens to 69 bps as DSCR Overlays Quietly Reset Higher
The 30-year fixed opens the week at 6.33% per Optimal Blue, roughly 4 bps below Friday’s 6.37% PMMS as the bond market repositions ahead of tomorrow’s April CPI. The 5/1 ARM holds at 5.64% — the tightest discount to the 30-year in three weeks. Non-QM aggregators are quietly tightening cleanest-tier DSCR ratios from 1.00x to 1.10x, and no-ratio investor loans are picking up the slack. April CPI Tuesday at 8:30 AM is the binary catalyst: 0.2% core opens a path below 6.25%; 0.4%+ pushes us back through 6.45%.
30-Yr: 6.33% 10-Yr: 4.38% CPI Tomorrow DSCR Reset Lock Window
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May
10
Sun
Sunday, May 10, 2026 — Week Ahead
Week Ahead: April CPI Tuesday Is the Whole Game. Jobs Cooled, Wages Cooled, Powell's Last Day Friday — But the 30-Year Sits at 6.37% With No Cushion.
The 30-year ended the week at 6.37% (up 7 bps) on Freddie Mac's PMMS after a hot ISM Services and stronger ADP front-loaded the move. Friday's April Jobs print beat headline (115K vs. 55K) but wages cooled to 0.2% MoM and February revisions confirmed a real labor slowdown. Tuesday's April CPI is the only event with the gravity to reset rates — soft and we retest 6.20%, hot and we test 6.50%. Powell's term ends Friday May 15; Warsh inherits a 4-dissent FOMC and zero June cut probability priced in.
30-Yr: 6.37% 10-Yr: 4.35% CPI Tuesday Powell Out Fri Lock or Float
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May
9
Sat
Saturday, May 9, 2026 — Week in Review
Week in Review: Jobs Beat +177K, Sentiment Hit All-Time Low 48.2, and CPI Tuesday Is the Only Thing That Matters Now
The week of May 4–8 moved rates +10 bps from 6.27% to 6.37% in an orderly grind higher driven by ISM Services (22nd expansion month), ADP +185K, a contentious 8–4 Fed hold, and Friday's double-header: NFP crushing the +62K consensus at +177K while UMich sentiment collapsed to an all-time record low 48.2. DSCR now 30% of non-QM securitization. CPI Tuesday is the next inflection — one print away from 6.50%+.
30-Yr: 6.37% 10-Yr: 4.39% NFP +177K UMich 48.2 CPI Tuesday
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May
8
Fri
Friday, May 8, 2026 — Morning Brief
Jobs Beat Hard. Sentiment Collapsed. CPI Waits — April NFP +177K vs. +62K, UMich 48.2 All-Time Record Low, Freddie Mac PMMS 6.37%
April Nonfarm Payrolls crushed the +62K consensus at +177K, sending the 10-year to 4.39% and nudging the 30-year to 6.37%. Freddie Mac's PMMS confirmed 6.37% for the week. But simultaneously, UMich preliminary May sentiment collapsed to an all-time record low 48.2 with 1-year inflation expectations hitting 4.7% — the highest since the early 1980s. ISM Services confirmed the 22nd straight expansion month at 53.6% but New Orders fell 7.1 pts. Tuesday May 12 CPI is the only thing that matters now. Lock floating pipeline before Monday close.
30-Yr: 6.37% 10-Yr: 4.39% NFP +177K Beat UMich Record Low CPI Tuesday
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May
7
Thu
Thursday, May 7, 2026 — Morning Brief
DSCR Loans Now 30% of Non-QM Securitization Volume — 30-Year Eases to 6.44% Ahead of Tomorrow's Jobs Report
The 30-year fixed pulls back 7 bps to 6.44% as the 10-year Treasury falls to 4.35% on a U.S.-Iran de-escalation proposal that crushed crude prices. DSCR loans now make up 30% of Non-QM securitization volume — institutional capital has officially standardized the asset class. April Jobs Report hits tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET (consensus 55K NFP) and is the single biggest rate risk into next week's CPI on May 12.
30-Yr: 6.44% 10-Yr: 4.35% DSCR 30% of Non-QM NFP Tomorrow Lock Window
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May
6
Wed
Wednesday, May 6, 2026 — Morning Brief
30-Year Hits 6.51% as ADP Drops This Morning — Fed's Most Contentious Vote Since 1992 Signals No Cuts Ahead
The 30-year fixed jumped 16 bps to 6.51% this morning as rate pressure from last week's hawkish FOMC hold continues to compound. ADP private payrolls hit today (watch for anything above 175K as a risk trigger), and Friday's April Jobs Report is the week's biggest catalyst. Non-QM market on track for $150B in 2026 — nearly double last year's volume — and the 5/1 ARM at 5.64% offers a rare 87-bp discount to the 30-year fixed.
30-Yr: 6.51% 10-Yr: 4.42% ADP Today Jobs Fri Non-QM $150B
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May
5
Tue
Tuesday, May 5, 2026 — Morning Brief
Rates Jump to 6.35% as ISM Services Hits Today and Jobs Report Looms Friday. Lock Window Is Now.
The 30-year climbs to 6.35% — up 8 bps from Monday — as the 10-year Treasury pushes above 4.44% on Middle East energy concerns and pre-ISM caution. ISM Services PMI lands today at 10 AM ET (consensus 51.5–52.0) and is the week's first major rate risk. ADP Employment comes Wednesday, April Jobs Report hits Friday May 8. Pennymac TPO's Non-QM launch and Non-QM securitization tracking 25% above 2025 pace headline the industry story.
30-Yr: 6.35% 10-Yr: 4.44% ISM Services Today Jobs Fri Pennymac Non-QM
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May
4
Mon
Monday, May 4, 2026 — Morning Brief
Rates Ease to 6.27% to Open a Critical Week. ISM Services Tomorrow, Jobs Friday.
The 30-year opens Monday at 6.27% — down modestly from Friday's close — as markets take a breath before two top-tier data releases. ISM Services PMI lands tomorrow at 10 AM ET (consensus 51.5–52.0), and the April Jobs Report hits Friday May 8. No major releases today makes this the cleanest pipeline window of the week.
30-Yr: 6.27% 10-Yr: 4.37% ISM Services Tue Jobs Fri Pipeline Day
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May
3
Sun
Sunday, May 3, 2026 — Week Ahead
Week Ahead: ISM Services Tuesday, Jobs Friday. After a Week That Cost 10 Basis Points, the Setup Has to Improve or Rates Test 6.50%.
Two top-tier catalysts on the calendar after the most data-dense week of the spring left rates 6–10 bps higher at 6.31%. ISM Services Tuesday (consensus 51.5–52.0) and the April Jobs Report Friday (consensus 140–160K) will set the tone for the next FOMC. Brent crude back to ~$108–111 is the bull tailwind. Pipeline focus this week: 2–4 unit DSCR, STR DSCR, Non-QM HELOCs.
30-Yr: 6.31% 10-Yr: 4.38% ISM Services Tue Jobs Friday Pipeline Plays
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May
2
Sat
Saturday, May 2, 2026 — Week in Review
FOMC Held, GDP Missed, PCE Stuck at 3.5%, ISM Prices Surged. Rates Close at 6.31% After the Biggest Data Week of the Spring.
The most data-dense week of the spring delivered a Fed hold (8–4 split), a Q1 GDP miss at 2.0%, PCE holding at 3.5% YoY, and ISM Prices Paid at a 4-year high. Powell announced he’s staying. Rates ended 6–8 bps higher on the week at 6.31%. Next: ISM Services May 5, Jobs May 8, CPI May 13.
30-Yr: 6.31% 10-Yr: 4.38% FOMC Held 8–4 GDP 2.0% PCE 3.5%
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May
1
Fri
Friday, May 1, 2026 — Morning Brief
ISM Prices Surge to Highest Since April 2022. Rates Hit 6.35% to Close the Most Consequential Week of the Spring.
April ISM Manufacturing came in at 52.7 — slightly below 53.0 consensus — but the Prices Paid component surged to its highest level since April 2022 on energy and tariff costs. The 30-yr closes the week at 6.35% before a modest end-of-day compression. Next week: ISM Services Tuesday, Jobs Report Friday May 8.
30-Yr: 6.35% 10-Yr: 4.39% ISM Prices 4-Yr High Asset Depletion Lock Day
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Apr
30
Thu
Thursday, April 30, 2026 — Morning Brief
Q1 GDP Misses at 2.0%. PCE Holds at 3.5%. Freddie PMMS Rises to 6.30% as Stagflation Narrative Firms Up.
Q1 GDP advance estimate came in at 2.0% annualized (below 2.3–2.4% consensus) as consumer spending slowed. March PCE held at 3.5% YoY — in line but still 150 bps above the Fed’s target. Freddie PMMS rises to 6.30%, up 7 bps from last week. Brent crude pulls back to $114 from $126.
30-Yr: 6.29% 10-Yr: 4.38% GDP 2.0% PCE 3.5% Freddie 6.30%
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Apr
29
Wed
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 — Morning Brief
Fed Holds for the Third Time. Powell Stays. Rates Steady at 6.25% After the Most Divided FOMC in Years.
FOMC voted 8–4 to hold at 3.50–3.75%. Miran dissented for a cut; Hammack, Kashkari, Logan dissented against the easing bias. Powell announced he will remain as Chair despite Trump’s legal campaign — “left me no choice.” Rates ended unchanged at 6.25%.
30-Yr: 6.25% 10-Yr: 4.29% FOMC 8–4 Hold Powell Stays Non-QM Refis
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Apr
28
Tue
Tuesday, April 28, 2026 — Morning Brief
FOMC Day One. Consumer Confidence Slips. Rates Hold at 6.25% in Pre-Decision Quiet.
Consumer Confidence fell to 97.2 vs. 100.5 consensus as tariff anxiety and forward-looking sentiment dragged the index lower. The 10-yr dips to 4.29% and the 30-yr holds at 6.25% as markets park ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision and Powell press conference at 2 PM ET.
30-Yr: 6.25% 10-Yr: 4.29% Confidence 97.2 FOMC Tomorrow Bank Statements
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Apr
27
Mon
Monday, April 27, 2026 — Morning Brief
Durable Goods Disappoint. Rates Edge Down to 6.26% to Open FOMC Week.
March Durable Goods came in −0.9% headline (aircraft drag) but +0.4% ex-transportation — soft enough to give bonds a light bid. The 30-yr eases to 6.26% as FOMC week begins. Fed goes into blackout mode today with the decision Wednesday afternoon. Non-QM spotlight covers rate pricing factors, DSCR cash-out refi, qualifying rental income, and blending income sources.
30-Yr: 6.26% 10-Yr: 4.31% Durable Goods −0.9% FOMC Wk DSCR Cash-Out
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Apr
26
Sun
Sunday, April 26, 2026 — Week Ahead
FOMC Wednesday. GDP Thursday. PCE Friday. The Most Consequential Rate Week of the Spring.
The 30-year enters FOMC week at 6.28% — near a four-week low. Wednesday's Fed decision and press conference, Thursday's Q1 GDP, and Friday's PCE inflation print will define the rate direction for May. Non-QM spotlight covers LLC vesting on DSCR, non-warrantable condos, mixed-use properties, and W-2 borrowers who don't fit conventional guidelines.
30-Yr: 6.28% FOMC Apr 29 PCE May 1 GDP Apr 30 LLC Vesting
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Apr
25
Sat
Saturday, April 25, 2026 — Week in Review
Freddie Drops to 6.23%. FOMC Minutes Absorbed. Spring Pipeline Is Accelerating.
The 30-year held the 6.05-6.24% range all week — the tightest, most favorable band in months. Freddie Mac's PMMS dropped to 6.23%, the second straight weekly decline. Retail sales beat, claims mild, ceasefire intact. Week ahead: FOMC Wednesday, Q1 GDP Thursday, PCE Friday. Non-QM spotlight covers DSCR basics, asset depletion, refi vintage opportunity, and credit event timelines.
30-Yr: 6.23% (PMMS) Freddie −7bps Claims 214K DSCR Asset Depletion
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Apr
24
Fri
Friday, April 24, 2026
Rates Close the Week at 6.24%. Best Back-to-Back Rate Week Since January.
The 30-year held near its best levels all week, closing Friday at 6.24%. Two straight weekly Freddie improvements, a held ceasefire, stable claims, and strong retail sales made April 21-25 the most favorable rate week of the spring so far. Next week: FOMC Wednesday, GDP Thursday, PCE Friday. Non-QM spotlight covers STR DSCR, DTI limits, foreign national loans, and ITIN programs.
30-Yr: 6.24% 10-Yr: 4.33% Week Recap STR DSCR ITIN Loans
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Apr
23
Thu
Thursday, April 23, 2026
Freddie Mac Reports 6.23%. Claims Tick Up But Continuing Claims Hit a Two-Year Low.
Freddie Mac's PMMS came in at 6.23%, the lowest in four weeks and down 7bps from last week's 6.30%. Initial claims ticked to 214K (from 207K) but continuing claims dropped to 1.794M — the lowest in nearly two years. The 30-year has improved 32bps in two weeks. FOMC Wednesday and PCE Friday next week are the next risk events. Non-QM spotlight covers below-1.0x DSCR, 2-4 unit, second home bank statements, and new construction DSCR.
30-Yr: 6.23% (PMMS) Freddie −7bps Claims 214K 2–4 Unit DSCR Second Home
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Apr
22
Wed
Wednesday, April 22, 2026
FOMC Minutes Day. Ceasefire Extended. Rates Hold at 6.08% as Markets Await the Fed’s Next Signal.
The original Iran ceasefire deadline has passed but Trump's extension is holding, with oil near $93/bbl. The 30-yr sits at 6.08% — the best sustained rate level since early April. FOMC minutes release this afternoon and will reveal how divided the committee is on cut timing. Non-QM spotlight covers P&L-only, bank statement window strategy, blended income qualification, and the DSCR vs. Schedule E conversation every rental investor needs to hear.
30-Yr: 6.08% 10-Yr: 4.23% FOMC Minutes Ceasefire Extended P&L Only
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Apr
21
Tue
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Trump Extends the Iran Ceasefire. Retail Sales Surge 1.7%. Rates Touch 6.05%.
Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire extension citing Iran's "seriously fractured" government, sending oil to $93/bbl and the 30-yr to 6.05%. March Retail Sales crushed expectations at +1.7% MoM vs. +1.1% consensus. Pending home sales rose 1.5% MoM. Non-QM spotlight covers DSCR at 6.05%, asset depletion for retirees and high-net-worth borrowers, same-day pricing strategy, and Non-QM HELOCs.
30-Yr: 6.05% 10-Yr: 4.21% Ceasefire Extended Retail +1.7% DSCR
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Apr
20
Mon
Monday, April 20, 2026
Ceasefire Deadline Is Wednesday. Rates Drift to 6.15% as Oil Softens and Yields Pull Back.
The 30-yr opened Monday at 6.15% as Brent pulled back toward $93/bbl on ceasefire extension speculation. The MBA noted rates declined last week on Middle East developments. Three events hit Tuesday-Wednesday: Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes, and the ceasefire deadline. Non-QM spotlight covers reserve requirements, pricing factors, appraisal overlays, and blanket loans vs. individual DSCR portfolio strategy.
30-Yr: 6.15% 10-Yr: 4.27% Ceasefire Deadline Wed Retail Sales Tue DSCR Pricing
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Apr
19
Sun
Sunday, April 19, 2026
Three Events in 48 Hours. Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes, and the Iran Ceasefire Deadline Could Each Move Rates 20bps.
The 30-yr opens Sunday at 6.22% heading into the most consequential week of April. Retail Sales land Tuesday, FOMC Minutes and the Iran ceasefire expiration both hit Wednesday. Non-QM spotlight covers interest-only DSCR for cash flow optimization, LLC vesting strategy for investors, non-warrantable condo financing, and mixed-use DSCR.
30-Yr: 6.22% 10-Yr: 4.25% Week Ahead Ceasefire Deadline IO DSCR
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Apr
18
Sat
Saturday, April 18, 2026
Week in Review: Rates Hold Near Lows, Data Mixed, and a High-Stakes Week Ahead
The 30-yr closed the week at 6.26%, down 11bps from the prior Friday. PPI came in at +0.5% (well below the 1.1% consensus), claims beat at 207K, housing starts softened to 1.287M SAAR, and Philly Fed dropped sharply. Non-QM spotlight covers foreign national loans, ITIN homeownership, 1-year tax return strategy, and Non-QM for W-2 borrowers who don't fit the conventional box.
30-Yr: 6.26% 10-Yr: 4.26% Week in Review PPI +0.5% Claims 207K
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Apr
17
Fri
Friday, April 17, 2026
10-Year Treasury Falls to 4.26% to Close the Week. The Iran Ceasefire Clock Is Ticking.
End-of-week bond buying pushed the 10-yr to 4.26% and the 30-yr to 6.26% — weekly lows. Retail Sales rescheduled to April 21. FOMC Minutes and Iran ceasefire deadline both land Wednesday April 22. Non-QM spotlight covers DSCR cash-out refi for portfolio investors, the 2024 vintage refi opportunity, seasoning requirements, and credit event waiting periods.
30-Yr: 6.26% 10-Yr: 4.26% Ceasefire Apr 22 FOMC Minutes DSCR Cash-Out
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Apr
16
Thu
Thursday, April 16, 2026
Freddie Mac Reports 6.30%. Claims Beat. Housing Starts Soften. The Data Picture Is Mixed.
Freddie Mac's PMMS showed the 30-yr at 6.30% — down 7bps week-over-week and a four-week low. Initial claims came in at 207K (below 215K forecast). March Housing Starts at 1.287M SAAR reflect tariff-driven builder hesitation. Philly Fed Manufacturing dropped sharply. Non-QM spotlight covers below-1.0x DSCR, 2-4 unit DSCR investing, STR DSCR income eligibility, and new construction DSCR strategy.
30-Yr: 6.30% 10-Yr: 4.32% Freddie PMMS Claims 207K Housing Starts
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Apr
15
Wed
Wednesday, April 15, 2026
IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts. Stagflation Risk Is Real — and It’s Complicated for Rates.
The IMF's full World Economic Outlook report flagged stagflation risk in developed economies — tariff-driven inflation persisting as growth slows. Markets are pricing the Fed on hold through at least Q3. MBA purchase applications beginning to tick up as rates hold below 6.25%. Thursday preview: Freddie PMMS, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, and Philly Fed all drop. Non-QM spotlight covers bank statement window strategy, second home loans, income blending, and DTI limits.
30-Yr: 6.22% 10-Yr: 4.33% IMF Stagflation Bank Statement Fed On Hold
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Apr
14
Tue
Tuesday, April 14, 2026
PPI Comes in Softer Than Expected. The Rate Panic That Wasn’t.
March PPI printed +0.5% MoM vs. 1.1% expected — well below consensus, with services inflation flat. YoY hit 4.0% but energy drove all of it. IMF World Economic Outlook also released. Existing Home Sales fell 3.6% to 3.98M with inventory rising to 4.1 months. Non-QM spotlight covers DSCR basics, P&L-only qualification, asset depletion for high-net-worth borrowers, and DSCR vs. Schedule E for rental investors.
30-Yr: 6.18% 10-Yr: 4.30% PPI +0.5% (Beat) IMF WEO Existing Sales 3.98M
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Apr
13
Sun
Sunday, April 13, 2026
Rates Break to a 5-Week Low. Can This Week's Data Lock In the Gains?
The 30-yr fixed dropped to 6.15%, its lowest point in five weeks, ahead of a data-heavy stretch: PPI on Tuesday, then Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and Initial Claims on Thursday. Four Non-QM angles for brokers this week: DSCR investors re-engaging at lower rates, self-employed bank statement pipeline, foreign national and ITIN opportunities, and record non-QM securitization volume signaling competitive programs ahead.
30-Yr: 6.15% 10-Yr: 4.31% Week Ahead PPI DSCR
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Apr
11
Sat
Saturday, April 11, 2026
Ceasefire Gave Rates a Breather. Then CPI Took It Back.
The 30-yr fixed fell to a weekly low of 6.32% Wednesday on US-Iran ceasefire news, then reversed to 6.41% after Friday's hot March CPI print of 3.3%. End-of-week rates closed at 6.37%, down 9 bps on the week. Week in Review covers the two-act rate narrative, record-low consumer sentiment, sluggish purchase apps, and Non-QM positioning for the data-heavy week ahead.
30-Yr: 6.37% 10-Yr: 4.31% Iran Ceasefire CPI 3.3% Week in Review
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Apr
10
Fri
Friday, April 10, 2026
March CPI Prints Hot at 3.3% — The Rate Relief Window Just Got Smaller
March CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year — above consensus — as energy costs tied to the Iran conflict keep inflation sticky. Michigan consumer sentiment crashed to a record low of 47.6 with 1-year inflation expectations surging to 4.8%. Non-QM spotlight covers Logan Finance's new $5M high-balance tier, Onslow Bay's $789M securitization, DSCR rate normalization, and the sector's path to 15%+ market share.
30-Yr: 6.37% 10-Yr: 4.37% CPI 3.3% YoY Consumer Sentiment Logan Finance
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Apr
9
Thu
Thursday, April 9, 2026
Ceasefire Shaves 9 Bps off the 30-Year. CPI Tomorrow Is the Real Test.
The US-Iran ceasefire triggered the first weekly rate drop since the conflict began, with the 30-yr fixed falling to 6.37% per Freddie Mac PMMS. March CPI drops tomorrow at 8:30 ET and could reverse all of today's gains if core inflation prints above consensus. Non-QM spotlight covers asset depletion loans, foreign national DSCR, 12-month bank statement programs, and the counter-cyclical case for non-QM as conventional credit tightens.
30-Yr: 6.37% 10-Yr: 4.29% US-Iran Ceasefire CPI Apr 10 Housing Inventory
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Apr
8
Wed
Wednesday, April 8, 2026
FOMC Minutes Confirm the Fed Is Frozen. Rates Dipped Today, But Friday's CPI Will Have the Final Word.
The March FOMC minutes released today confirm the Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% with tariff-driven goods inflation and Middle East energy uncertainty as the central concerns. The 30-yr fixed dipped to 6.25% as the 10-yr pulled back to 4.26%. MBA applications fell 0.8% for week ending April 3. Non-QM spotlight covers DSCR investing, P&L-only qualification, interest-only structures, and 1099 income programs.
30-Yr: 6.25% 10-Yr: 4.26% FOMC Minutes CPI Apr 10 MBA Apps -0.8%
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Apr
7
Tue
Tuesday, April 7, 2026
Monday's Rate Relief Was a 24-Hour Window. Treasury Yields Just Surged 33 Basis Points Back.
The 10-yr Treasury reversed sharply from 4.01% to 4.34% as the flight-to-safety trade unwound in a single session. The 30-yr fixed climbed back to 6.38%. ISM Services Prices hit a 42-month high at 70.7%, killing H1 rate cut odds. Non-QM Spotlight covers asset depletion, foreign national programs, 24-month bank statement loans, and non-warrantable condo financing.
30-Yr: 6.38% 10-Yr: 4.34% ISM Prices 70.7% FOMC Minutes Tomorrow CPI Apr 10
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Apr
6
Mon
Monday, April 6, 2026
Bond Flight Brings Rate Relief This Monday, But CPI Friday Could Give It All Back.
The 30-yr fixed opens at 6.34% as tariff-driven safe-haven buying pushes the 10-yr Treasury to 4.01%. Four data releases this week: ISM Services, FOMC Minutes, Jobless Claims, and Friday's CPI — the first inflation read to reflect tariff pricing. Non-QM Spotlight covers P&L qualification, DSCR pricing, interest-only structures, and bridge-to-DSCR.
30-Yr: 6.34% 10-Yr: 4.01% CPI Apr 10 FOMC Minutes DSCR Pricing
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Apr
4
Sat
Saturday, April 4, 2026
Liberation Day, a Jobs Bombshell, and a Supreme Court Reversal. The Most Consequential Week of the Year.
The 30-yr fixed closed at 6.64% after a wild week: rates fell from 6.44% to 6.25% Monday through Thursday, then spiked 39bps on Friday's jobs beat (178K vs. 57K). The Supreme Court struck down Liberation Day tariffs 6-3 on Friday. Non-QM in Focus covers bank statement documentation strategy, asset depletion, foreign national DSCR, and non-QM jumbo.
30-Yr: 6.64% 10-Yr: 4.31% SCOTUS Tariff Ruling Jobs 178K CPI Apr 10
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Apr
3
Fri
Friday, April 3, 2026
178K Jobs Crushed the Forecast. Soft Wages Tell the Real Story for Rates.
March payrolls surged to 178,000, more than triple the 57K consensus, as unemployment held at 4.3%. The 30-yr fixed climbed to 6.64% on tariff-driven Treasury volatility before soft wage growth (+0.2% vs 0.3% expected) offered partial relief. Non-QM spotlight covers DSCR vs. conventional LLPA pricing, P&L loans for business owners, fix-and-flip capital, and near-prime borrowers.
30-Yr: 6.64% 10-Yr: 4.31% Jobs 178K DSCR vs Conventional CPI Next Week
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Apr
2
Thu
Thursday, April 2, 2026
Liberation Day Turns One as New Tariffs Hit and Markets Hold Breath for Tomorrow's Jobs Number
30-yr fixed drops to 6.25% as MBS spread compression delivers rate improvement even as the 10-yr Treasury ticks up to 4.31%. Trump announces tiered steel and aluminum duties on the one-year Liberation Day anniversary. MBA applications fell 10.4% for a second straight week. March payrolls — consensus +57K — release Friday on Good Friday with bond markets closed; gap risk runs through Monday's open.
30-Yr: 6.25% 10-Yr: 4.31% Liberation Day MBA Apps -10.4% Jobs Report Tomorrow
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Apr
1
Wed
Wednesday, April 1, 2026
ISM Prices Hit 3-Year High, But Rates Keep Falling as Markets Eye PCE and Jobs
30-yr fixed hits 6.29%, down 18bps over two sessions. ISM Manufacturing expanded for the third straight month at 52.7%, but the Prices Index surged to 78.3% (highest since June 2022). PCE releases Thursday; a soft print could push rates below 6.25%. March Jobs Report drops Good Friday while bond markets are closed, creating gap risk into Monday April 7.
30-Yr: 6.29% 10-Yr: 4.28% ISM 52.7% PCE April 9 Good Friday Gap Risk
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Mar
31
Tue
Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Bonds Rally on Iran De-escalation as Q1 Closes With First Rate Relief in Weeks
10-yr Treasury fell 12bps to 4.30% after Trump extended the Iran deal deadline, pulling the 30-yr fixed to 6.36%. Consumer confidence edged to 91.8 but the Expectations Index dropped to 70.9. AEI February HPA hit an all-time low of 1.1% YoY. Q2 forecasters see rates headed toward the high 5s by summer on 2-3 expected Fed cuts.
30-Yr: 6.36% 10-Yr: 4.30% Iran De-escalation HPA 1.1% YoY Q1 Close
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Mar
30
Mon
Monday, March 30, 2026
Oil Shock and Labor Fears Collide as Rates Hold Near 6.5%
30-yr fixed at 6.47%, up 9bps since last PMMS, as the Iran war keeps oil above $120/barrel and the 10-yr Treasury retreats from a 4.48% Friday high. February's -92K jobs print has the Fed stuck. Mortgage apps fell 10.5%. Active listings up 7.9% YoY but affordability remains a problem in 97% of counties. Non-QM spotlight: asset depletion, foreign national programs, AI underwriting speed, and jumbo non-QM in high-cost markets.
30-Yr: 6.47% 10-Yr: 4.42% Iran Oil Shock Apps -10.5% Standard Brief
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Mar
29
Sun
Sunday, March 29, 2026
Jobs Report on Good Friday: Market Reaction Waits Until Monday
30-yr fixed at 6.38% heading into the most data-heavy week of Q1. Case-Shiller and JOLTS hit Tuesday, ADP and ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday, Jobless Claims Thursday, then the March NFP print lands at 8:30 AM on Good Friday when markets are closed. Rate impact hits Monday's open. Non-QM positioning for DSCR investors, bank statement borrowers, and P&L loan demand from tariff-squeezed business owners.
30-Yr: 6.38% 10-Yr: 4.42% Jobs Report Good Friday DSCR Positioning Week Ahead
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Mar
28
Sat
Saturday, March 28, 2026
Week in Review: Apps Crater 10.5%, Builder Pain Mounts, Non-QM Defies the Rate Shock
Daily trackers hit 6.49% by Friday as MBA apps plunge 10.5% and refis crater 15%. White House orders CFPB to expand QM safe harbor. Redfin reports 630K more sellers than buyers. Builders cut prices. Non-QM holds strong: Deephaven launches non-QM HELOC, Angel Oak adds DSCR rental AVM. PCE lands next week.
30-Yr: 6.38% 10-Yr: 4.44% Apps -10.5% Builder Cuts Week in Review
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Mar
27
Fri
Friday, March 27, 2026
Rates Push Higher on Iran Tensions as Spring Season Kicks Off
30-yr fixed hits 6.38%, up 16bps on the week, as the Iran conflict drives the 10-yr Treasury to its highest since July 2025. loanDepot reenters wholesale. UWM launches Built-In Rewards. FHFA loosens insurance rules. Fannie retiring limited review for condos.
30-Yr: 6.38% 10-Yr: 4.44% loanDepot Wholesale FHFA Insurance Fed Hold
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