Week Ahead — Sunday, March 29, 2026

Economic Calendar

TUE

MAR

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index + JOLTS Job Openings

● High Impact

February Case-Shiller arrives alongside February JOLTS, making Tuesday a double-barrel housing and labor read. Case-Shiller has been running hot despite softened buyer demand, reflecting persistent inventory tightness. JOLTS openings are a leading indicator for wage pressure, which the Fed watches closely as it weighs whether inflation is truly contained. A significant drop in openings could accelerate rate-cut expectations heading into the April 28 FOMC meeting.

WED

APR

ADP Employment Report + ISM Manufacturing PMI

● High Impact

Wednesday is the data heavyweight of the week. ADP's private payroll count for March sets the tone ahead of Friday's BLS print. After February's shocking -92K BLS miss, traders will scrutinize ADP closely for signs of a rebound or a second consecutive contraction. ISM Manufacturing follows at 10 AM; it has held above 52 for two straight months, but any slip below 50 would signal contraction and put downward pressure on Treasury yields, pulling mortgage rates along.

THU

APR

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

● Medium Impact

The last labor data point before Friday's NFP. Claims have been gradually rising since mid-February, partly reflecting federal workforce reductions tied to DOGE spending cuts and some seasonal noise. A print above 230K adds meaningful weight to the labor-softening narrative. This is also the final session equity and bond markets are open before the Good Friday close, so any surprise could trigger outsized positioning moves into the long weekend.

FRI

APR

March Non-Farm Payrolls — Good Friday (Markets Closed)

● High Impact

The BLS releases the March jobs report at 8:30 AM ET on Good Friday, when equity markets are dark and bond markets close early. Real market reaction won't arrive until Monday morning, April 6. Consensus expects a rebound near +140K after February's -92K miss. A second consecutive weak print would accelerate the Fed rate-cut timeline and likely push the 10-yr below 4.30% on Monday's open; a strong beat keeps the higher-for-longer narrative alive and likely extends the recent rate spike above 6.38%.

Non-QM Positioning This Week

🏦

Bank Statement Programs: Most Competitive Since 2023

With conventional rates back above 6.38%, the pricing gap between agency and Non-QM has narrowed enough that bank statement programs look increasingly attractive for self-employed borrowers. Several investors have trimmed pricing on 12-month bank statement at 75-80% LTV to within 50-75 bps of par conventional. If this week's data softens rates, that window tightens further, making now a smart time to run scenarios.

📊

DSCR Investors: Prepare for Monday Rate Movement

DSCR loan rates (currently 5.875-7.375% depending on LTV and property type) track the 10-year Treasury directly. A weak March jobs report could push the 10-yr back below 4.30% by Monday's open, repricing DSCR product favorably. Investors with active scenarios should have rate-lock strategies ready for Tuesday morning, not waiting for Monday volatility to fully settle before acting.

🧾

Tariff Pressure Is Creating P&L Loan Demand

Businesses absorbing tariff-driven input cost increases are showing compressed net income on tax returns even when actual cash flow is strong. This is especially visible in construction, import-reliant retail, and manufacturing trades. P&L-based Non-QM qualification lets brokers underwrite on real business cash flow rather than tax-return income, capturing a growing pool of creditworthy borrowers the agency market is missing entirely.

🌱

Spring Fix & Flip Window Is Open

Existing inventory remains near historic lows, pushing buyers toward value-add properties and creating real deal flow for fix-and-flip and bridge borrowers. Short-term bridge rates are running 8-10%, but improving ARVs are making deal economics work again as spring demand picks up. Non-QM investors with bridge and rehab programs are seeing increased broker inquiries, and approval timelines have tightened noticeably heading into the spring buying season.

Weekly Outlook

This is the most consequential data week of Q1 for rate watchers. The March jobs report is the single biggest catalyst for mortgage rate direction all quarter, and it lands on Good Friday when bond markets are closed. That creates an unusual dynamic: the BLS prints at 8:30 AM ET on April 3, but the actual market reaction gets bottled up until Monday morning. Brokers should use this week to brief rate-sensitive borrowers, get DSCR investors prepped with scenarios in hand, and nail down any pipelines before ADP and ISM set the early tone on Wednesday.

The broader backdrop coming into this week is rising rates meeting rising uncertainty. The 30-year fixed moved from 6.00% to 6.38% in just four weeks, driven by tariff-inflation fears and persistent labor market signals. If Wednesday's ADP comes in soft and Friday's NFP misses again, that narrative cracks quickly. The Fed's next meeting is April 28, and markets currently price only a 20-25% chance of a cut. A second consecutive jobs miss could reprice that dramatically by Monday's open. Have your scenarios ready before the data drops.