Morning Brief — Thursday, April 2, 2026

Today's Headlines

Trade Policy

Liberation Day at One: Trump Rolls Out Tiered Steel and Aluminum Duties as the Tariff Economy Takes Stock

Today marks the one-year anniversary of President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement, when sweeping import tariffs reshaped U.S. trade policy overnight and sent markets into a brief freefall before a partial retreat. One year later, the scoreboard is complicated: the Supreme Court has struck down several of the original duties, manufacturing employment has declined by roughly 89,000 jobs since April 2025, and input costs for steel, aluminum, and imported goods remain elevated. Today's announcement of a tiered system for ongoing steel and aluminum duties keeps the story alive for builders and developers, where material costs remain a meaningful headwind on new construction starts. For mortgage brokers, the macro throughline is that tariff-driven inflation persistence is exactly what keeps the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting rates too fast. It has not derailed the downward rate trajectory, but it's kept the floor higher than it would otherwise be.

Rate Survey

Freddie Mac's Weekly Survey Shows 30-Year Still Well Below March Peak as Daily Rates Continue to Improve

Freddie Mac releases its Primary Mortgage Market Survey every Thursday, and this week's data puts the longer-term trend in context. The March 26 survey showed the 30-year fixed averaging 6.38%, up from 6.22% the prior week, reflecting mid-March volatility driven by the Iran conflict and inflation concerns. Daily rate tracking now puts the 30-year at 6.25%, a meaningful improvement from that March peak and the lowest reading in roughly a month. The 15-year fixed has followed suit at 5.69%. The tension worth noting: the 10-year Treasury is actually ticking slightly higher at 4.31%, up 3 basis points. Mortgage rates moving down while the 10-year moves up signals spread compression in the mortgage-backed securities market. Investors are bidding more aggressively for MBS right now, which is translating directly into better pricing for borrowers even before the 10-year itself falls.

Market Demand

MBA Mortgage Applications Fall 10.4% for Second Consecutive Week as Buyers Sit on the Sidelines

The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey for the period ending March 27 showed total applications declining 10.4%, the second straight double-digit weekly drop. Refinance applications led the pullback, falling 18.5% as the mid-March rate spike choked off the refi pipeline that had been building through February. Purchase applications were slightly more resilient, edging down 0.9%, suggesting buyers haven't completely exited the market but are clearly waiting for a clearer signal on where rates settle. The timing matters here: those surveys captured the market at its worst point, before the current two-day improvement in rates. If the 30-year holds at or below 6.25% through this week, the MBA data for the week ending April 3 should show a meaningful rebound. That makes tomorrow's jobs number especially critical for sustaining the current momentum.

Labor Market

March Payrolls Expected to Rebound to +57,000 Tomorrow, But the Iran Conflict May Have Already Begun to Hit Hiring

The March Employment Situation report releases Friday morning at 8:30 AM ET, with bond markets closed for Good Friday. The FactSet consensus is +57,000 nonfarm payrolls, which would represent a recovery from February's -92,000 shock but still land well below the pre-tariff monthly average of around 180,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings are expected to come in at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year. Some economists, however, believe the Iran conflict's impact on shipping, energy prices, and manufacturing confidence has already begun to filter into hiring decisions, putting the consensus at risk of another downside miss. A soft number confirms the labor market is cooling, which keeps the Fed's rate-cut path intact and would push rates lower. A strong number above 100,000 could temporarily reverse the current mortgage rate improvement heading into Monday. Brokers with clients in active locks need to make that float-versus-lock decision today.

Non-QM Spotlight

💰

Asset Depletion Loans: Qualifying the Borrower Whose Wealth Is the Point

Asset depletion programs convert a borrower's liquid assets into qualifying income by dividing portfolio value over a set number of months, typically 120. A borrower with $2.4 million in investment accounts qualifies for $20,000 per month in calculated income without drawing a single dollar. This is the program for early retirees, high-net-worth individuals who prefer to hold their assets rather than liquidate, and executives with equity-heavy compensation structures. With the 2026 conforming limit at $832,750 and luxury property demand still active in key markets, asset depletion is one of the fastest-growing non-QM categories in terms of loan size and borrower profile. Logan Finance's new Open Road Elevated tier covers asset qualification programs up to $5 million specifically for this borrower type.

🌎

Foreign National Programs: The Non-QM Niche Most Brokers Completely Overlook

Foreign national lending is one of the most underserved segments in the mortgage market, largely because most originators don't know it exists as a structured program. Non-QM lenders offer dedicated foreign national products that require no U.S. Social Security number, no U.S. credit history, and no domestic tax returns. Qualification is typically based on DSCR for investment purchases or a combination of international credit documentation and asset verification for primary or second home purchases. The referral network is the unlock here: immigration attorneys, international real estate agents, and private wealth advisors all work with clients who have U.S. purchase intent and no domestic lending relationship. One strategic partnership in that ecosystem can generate more volume than a dozen traditional realtor relationships.

🏛

High-Balance Non-QM Goes to $5M: Logan Finance Expands the Ceiling

Logan Finance recently launched Open Road Elevated, adding a premium tier to its existing non-QM product suite with loan amounts up to $5 million. The four programs cover full documentation borrowers up to $5M, bank statement self-employed borrowers up to $5M, asset qualification up to $5M, and DSCR investors up to $4.5M. The timing is relevant: the 2026 baseline conforming limit is $832,750, with high-cost market caps at $1,249,125. That creates a very large gap between agency lending and traditional jumbo underwriting guidelines. Non-QM high-balance programs fill that gap with more flexible income documentation, higher DTI allowances, and investor-property structures that jumbo lenders typically won't touch. For brokers in California, New York, or South Florida, this is worth knowing.

📊

Bank Statement Loans in a Tariff Economy: When Tax Returns Can't Tell the Story

Business owners affected by tariff volatility over the past year are showing up to lenders with complicated tax returns. A manufacturer who spent 2025 absorbing higher input costs and restructuring supply chains may show a depressed net income figure that completely misrepresents their business's actual health and current cash flow trajectory. Bank statement programs use 12 to 24 months of deposit history to calculate income directly, bypassing the tax-return problem entirely. As the tariff economy enters its second year, more business owners fall into this category with each passing filing season. Brokers who lead the conversation with bank statement as an option, before the borrower gets declined somewhere else, are converting deals their competitors don't know how to close.

Nate's Take

One year of Liberation Day tariffs, and the clearest takeaway is that the economy absorbed the shock without breaking, but it did not come out clean. Manufacturing jobs are down nearly 90,000 since the original announcement, new construction cost inflation is real and persistent, and the Fed is still using tariff uncertainty as partial cover for holding rates higher than anyone expected at the start of 2026. Today's tiered duty announcement on steel and aluminum is more of the same. Markets have largely priced this in, which is why the 10-year is only up 3 basis points rather than spiking. Mortgage rates at 6.25% while the 10-year sits at 4.31% tells you spreads are compressing, meaning MBS investors are getting more comfortable with the outlook. That's meaningful and it's worth communicating to clients who have been waiting for a definitive signal.

Tomorrow is the most important day of the week. The March jobs number releases at 8:30 AM ET with bond markets closed, and whatever the print says, the full rate reaction waits until Monday morning. The case for floating into the weekend is a +57K or weaker payroll number that confirms gradual labor market softening, keeps Fed cut expectations alive, and pushes the 30-year toward 6.10% or below by mid-April. The case for locking today is that any upside surprise above 100K or stronger-than-expected hourly earnings could reverse two weeks of rate improvement in a single Monday open. For anyone with a closing in the next 30 days, that conversation needs to happen today. The market is giving you a real number to work with at 6.25%, and the calendar is doing the urgency work for you.