Morning Brief — Thursday, April 9, 2026

Today's Headlines

Market Mover

Rates Fall for the First Time Since the Iran War on Ceasefire Announcement

President Trump's two-week ceasefire with Iran pulled the 10-year Treasury off its highs and gave Freddie Mac's PMMS enough breathing room to register a 9-basis-point drop in the 30-yr fixed this week, the first weekly decline since the conflict began in late February. Whether this holds depends entirely on whether the ceasefire extends beyond its two-week window. Geopolitical pauses don't change the underlying inflation dynamic, and with tariffs still generating supply-chain cost pressure, any durable move lower in rates needs more than a temporary truce.

Watch Tomorrow

March CPI Drops at 8:30 ET Friday: The Quarter's Most Important Rate Catalyst

Tomorrow's CPI report is the first reading to fully reflect tariff-driven price pressure flowing into consumer prices. Forecasters expect headline CPI to show acceleration, with core CPI firming above 3% partly because gas prices topped $4 per gallon. A hotter-than-expected print could hand back all of today's rate gains by Friday afternoon. A meaningful miss to the downside could push the 30-yr below 6.25% before the weekend. If you have borrowers sitting on the fence, the next 24 hours are worth a call.

Housing Market

66 Markets Now Above Pre-Pandemic Inventory Levels, But Demand Isn't Chasing It Yet

New data shows 66 of the nation's 200 largest housing markets now have more active listings than pre-COVID February 2019 levels. After years of supply drought, buyers finally have negotiating leverage in meaningful parts of the country. The catch: rate shock from the Iran war period has kept purchase applications suppressed, with demand slipping on an annual basis for the first time since January 2025. Buyers have the inventory they've been waiting for. They just need rates to cooperate before they act.

Spring Market

Spring 2026 Has the Ingredients for the Best Existing Home Sales Year in Years, If Rates Hold

Analysts describe 2026 as potentially the first year of real existing home sales growth in several years, supported by rising inventory, eight consecutive months of affordability improvement, and the return of first-time buyers. The Iran conflict's rate volatility eroded that momentum in February and March, but today's PMMS dip is the first concrete sign of recovery. A sustained ceasefire paired with a benign CPI could unlock the spring demand that has been building on the sidelines since January.

Non-QM Spotlight

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Asset Depletion: Qualifying on Wealth When Income Doesn't Fit the Box

For borrowers with substantial liquid assets and minimal W-2 or tax return income, asset depletion programs convert portfolio value into qualifying income. The lender divides eligible assets (brokerage accounts, retirement funds, savings) by the loan term to generate a monthly income figure. It's one of the cleanest solutions for retired borrowers, executives with deferred compensation, or anyone whose tax returns dramatically understate their financial position.

Ask about asset depletion eligibility →

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Foreign National DSCR: U.S. Investment Property, No U.S. Credit History Required

International investors don't need a U.S. credit file to close a DSCR loan. Foreign national programs qualify on the property's rental income, require valid visa or passport documentation, and typically ask for 30% or more down with solid reserves. Par rates for foreign national DSCR sit around 6.875% in today's market. With global dollar demand still strong, international buyers remain one of the most underserved and highest-converting segments in the wholesale channel.

Price a foreign national DSCR scenario →

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12-Month vs. 24-Month Bank Statement: When Recent Performance Tells the Better Story

Some self-employed borrowers saw meaningful income disruption in 2024 due to tariff-related supply chain issues, rising input costs, or business model transitions. Using a 24-month bank statement average can penalize strong current performance with a weaker prior period. Lenders offering 12-month programs let underwriters focus on what the borrower is earning now, a critical distinction when a business is recovering or scaling heading into 2026.

Compare 12 vs. 24-month bank statement programs →

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When Conventional Credit Tightens, Non-QM Stays Open: The Broker's Counter-Cyclical Play

Tariff anxiety and stagflation risk have tightened conventional bank underwriting as credit concerns mount. Non-QM lenders operate outside Qualified Mortgage guidelines, which means they can maintain flexible underwriting even when bank credit boxes shrink. Non-QM securitization is on pace for a 25% increase in non-agency volume in 2026, with the market projected to exceed 10% of total originations by year-end. The pipeline for non-conventional borrowers is growing.

Review your non-QM product lineup →

Nate's Take

Today's rate drop deserves credit. A 9-basis-point weekly decline in the 30-yr fixed, the first since the Iran war began, is real purchasing power recovered for borrowers who have been sitting on the sidelines. The ceasefire gave bond markets something to work with, and Freddie Mac's PMMS locked it in. But let's be clear about what a two-week ceasefire actually is: a pause. It doesn't resolve the geopolitical risk premium baked into long-term yields, and it doesn't change the fact that tariffs are still flowing through to consumer prices.

CPI tomorrow morning is the number that matters most this week. Consensus calls for core inflation above 3%, partly because energy prices have climbed sharply. If that print comes in hot, rates could reverse by Friday afternoon. If it comes in softer than expected, we could see the 30-yr push meaningfully below 6.25% before the weekend. The rate window today is real. Whether it's still open by Monday depends entirely on one data release. Make those calls now.