Morning Brief — Friday, April 10, 2026

Today's Headlines

Inflation

March CPI Comes In at 3.3% Year-Over-Year — Fed Rate Cuts Pushed Further Out

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March CPI report this morning, showing headline inflation at 3.3% year-over-year and core (less food and energy) at 2.6%. The print came in above consensus estimates, with energy costs tied to the Iran conflict keeping the headline figure sticky. The 10-yr Treasury has already moved back up to 4.37% in response. Fed Chair Powell has reiterated publicly that the Fed will not resume cutting rates until inflation shows clear downward progress, and today's number does the opposite of that.

Consumer

Michigan Sentiment Crashes to Record Low of 47.6 — Inflation Expectations Surge to 4.8%

The University of Michigan's preliminary April consumer sentiment index plunged 11% to 47.6, a record low. One-year inflation expectations jumped from 3.8% to 4.8%, and longer-run expectations ticked to 3.4% from 3.2% — both in ranges that concern the Fed. Critically, 98% of survey responses were collected before the April 7 ceasefire announcement, meaning the final reading may improve somewhat. Still, the combination of record-low confidence and surging inflation expectations is a tough backdrop for purchase demand.

Demand

Purchase Applications Drop 7% Year-Over-Year — First Annual Decline Since January 2025

The MBA's weekly applications survey for the period ending April 3 shows purchase applications 1% higher week-over-week but 7% lower than the same week one year ago — snapping a streak of annual gains that had run since January 2025. Economic uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict, combined with rates stuck above 6.5% for much of the past month, has kept would-be buyers on the fence. Refinance applications fell 3% week-over-week and are down 4% year-over-year.

Inventory

National Housing Inventory Up 8.1% Year-Over-Year, But Still 13.6% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

ResiClub's latest data shows national active inventory grew 8.1% between March 2025 and March 2026, and 11 states, including Texas, Florida, Colorado, and Arizona, have now surpassed their 2019 pre-pandemic inventory levels. Nationally, however, supply remains constrained. The next major data point is March Existing Home Sales, releasing Monday, April 13 at 10:00 ET from NAR — a reading that could shape rate sentiment heading into next week.

Non-QM Spotlight

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Logan Finance Launches Open Road Elevated: High-Balance Non-QM Up to $5M

Logan Finance just introduced Open Road Elevated, a new high-balance tier within its Open Road Non-QM series offering loan amounts up to $5 million. It covers full doc, bank statement, asset depletion, and DSCR options for high-net-worth borrowers and real estate investors. If a borrower's deal exceeds conventional jumbo limits and fits a non-traditional income structure, this is exactly the kind of product to have in your toolkit.

Explore High-Balance Scenarios →

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Onslow Bay Closes $789M Non-QM Securitization — Institutional Demand Stays Strong

Onslow Bay Financial closed OBX 2026-NQM4 at $789.6 million this week, bringing their aggregate non-QM securitization total to approximately $51.2 billion. Robust institutional demand for non-QM-backed securities keeps execution tight and pricing competitive across the wholesale channel. When capital markets stay healthy behind the scenes, lender margins stay workable and broker pricing stays competitive.

What Strong Securitization Means for Brokers →

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DSCR Loan Rates Now 5.875%–7.375% — Down Dramatically From the 2024 Peak

DSCR loan pricing has normalized significantly since the 8%–9% range that characterized much of 2024. Investors who held off on acquisitions while rates were elevated are now finding workable DSCR pricing on properties that cash flow at a 1.0+ ratio. With inventory rising in many investor-heavy markets like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, this is a meaningful window for clients sitting on the sidelines with rental property targets.

Run DSCR Scenarios →

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Non-QM Approaching 15% of Total Originations — From Niche to Mainstream Asset Class

Non-QM currently represents 10%–15% of total mortgage market share and is projected to cross 15% by year-end 2026. The shift is structural: growing self-employed borrower demand, expanding real estate investor activity, and standardized securitization structures have made non-QM a durable, institutionally recognized segment rather than a cyclical workaround. If your business mix doesn't reflect that share, there is volume you are leaving on the table.

Build Your Non-QM Pipeline →

Nate's Take

Today's CPI print at 3.3% year-over-year, combined with Michigan consumer sentiment hitting a record low of 47.6, tells a clear story: the rate relief the spring appeared to promise is going to be a slow drip at best. The ceasefire bought one good week, with the 30-yr touching 6.37%, but the 10-yr is already back at 4.37% this morning and the Fed has zero room to pivot with inflation running this sticky. Conventional borrowers waiting for 6% need a realistic timeline conversation.

That context is exactly why Non-QM is your strongest value proposition right now. Your self-employed clients, your real estate investors running DSCR, your high-net-worth borrowers who qualify on assets rather than W-2s — they are not waiting on the Fed. They are qualifying on what they actually have, in a market where capital (see: Onslow Bay's $789M deal this week) continues flowing into the sector. Logan Finance's new $5M high-balance tier and DSCR rates well below their 2024 peak mean the product availability is there. Make sure your borrowers know it.