Morning Brief — Sunday, April 13, 2026

Key Catalysts — This Week

Tuesday, Apr 14 — Producer Price Index (PPI)

Inflation's Second Act: PPI Follows the Hot CPI Print

Last week's March CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year, erasing the rate relief from the Iran ceasefire. PPI is the next data point in the inflation narrative. A cool reading would signal that pipeline price pressures are subsiding and could give the Fed room to lean dovish, supporting further rate improvement. A hot PPI print would reopen the "higher for longer" debate and likely reverse some of this weekend's 22-bps gain on the 30-yr.

Tuesday, Apr 14 — IMF World Economic Outlook

Global Growth Forecasts Get Revised Amid Tariff Uncertainty

The IMF releases its updated World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. With tariffs reshaping trade flows and the Iran conflict still casting a shadow on energy costs, a downward revision to global growth projections is widely expected. Markets often treat a weaker global growth outlook as a flight-to-safety catalyst, which pushes Treasury yields lower and pulls mortgage rates with them. Worth watching for specific U.S. growth and inflation commentary.

Thursday, Apr 16 — Retail Sales + Housing Starts

Twin Data Drop Tests Consumer Strength and Housing Supply

The most market-moving day of the week. Advance Retail Sales will signal whether consumers are holding up under inflation and economic uncertainty, while Housing Starts and Building Permits will reveal how badly tariff-driven cost increases are hitting new construction. Builders are dealing with copper and steel prices up more than 20% year-over-year. A weak starts number reinforces the structural shortage story that underpins long-term housing demand, which is relevant context for any broker talking purchase scenarios with clients.

Thursday, Apr 16 — Initial Claims + Philly Fed Manufacturing

Labor Market Pulse and Manufacturing Health Check

Initial jobless claims will be watched closely after consumer sentiment crashed to a record low of 47.6 last week. If claims start to creep up, it adds pressure on the Fed to cut sooner despite sticky inflation. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey adds color on business conditions in a region sensitive to tariff disruption. Together, these two reads will round out the market's picture of whether the economy is slowing fast enough to matter for rate policy.

Non-QM Watch

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DSCR Investors: The Rate Dip Is the Conversation Starter

The 30-yr sitting at 6.15% is the lowest it's been in five weeks. DSCR loan rates currently range from 6.0% to 7.5% depending on LTV, DSCR ratio, and property type. Investors who shelved purchase decisions during the 6.4-6.5% stretch now have a real reason to revisit their numbers. Short-term rental portfolios and small multi-family are seeing expanded DSCR eligibility from more lenders this year, opening new deal structures for your investor clients.

Talk DSCR scenarios →

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Bank Statement Loans: Self-Employed Pipeline Surging in 2026

Self-employed borrowers remain the fastest-growing buyer segment, and bank statement programs are the product that serves them. Lenders are accepting 12 or 24 months of personal or business statements, with some programs also accepting 3-month business statements or P&L-only qualification. The 22.86% surge in purchase locks in March signals real buying intent. If your self-employed borrowers have been on the sidelines, a 6.15% rate environment is a meaningful entry point worth calling about today.

Run a bank statement scenario →

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Foreign National and ITIN Loans: A Growing Opportunity in 2026

Non-QM securitization hit record levels in 2025, and the investor appetite is translating into more accessible programs for foreign nationals and ITIN borrowers. Lenders are accepting bank statement income for self-employed ITIN borrowers, and down payment requirements have become more competitive. With non-QM projected to exceed 15% of total originations by year-end, this is a borrower segment that most conventional-focused brokers are leaving on the table. It's worth adding to your product toolkit if you haven't already.

Ask about foreign national programs →

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Non-QM Securitization Volume Signals Strong Investor Appetite

Record non-QM securitization volume in 2025 is carrying momentum into 2026, with DSCR loans comprising roughly 30% of that volume. Strong investor demand for non-QM paper keeps funding costs competitive and translates to tighter spreads at the rate sheet level. More lenders are also expanding LTV tolerances and diversifying into mixed-use and small commercial DSCR, giving brokers more tools to solve scenarios that would have been declined a year ago.

Explore product options →

Nate's Take

The 30-yr just hit 6.15%, its lowest mark in five weeks, and it didn't happen by accident. The market is pricing in ceasefire relief and some forward-looking optimism ahead of a data-heavy week that could go either way. PPI on Tuesday is the first real test. After last week's hot CPI at 3.3%, another inflationary print would put the "higher for longer" trade back in play and likely claw back most of this weekend's improvement. A cooler PPI gives rates room to breathe into Thursday's retail sales and housing data.

For brokers, this is the moment to be in front of clients who were waiting for rates to pull back. They pulled back. The window might be short. DSCR investors sitting on rental acquisitions, self-employed borrowers with bank statement files ready to go, and foreign national buyers who've been watching from the sidelines all have a tangible reason to move this week. The pipeline conversations you have today are the closings that show up in May.