Morning Brief — Friday, April 3, 2026

Today's Headlines

Jobs Report

March Payrolls Surge to 178,000 — Triple the Forecast — But Wage Growth Comes In Soft

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 178,000 nonfarm payrolls added in March, blowing past the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 57,000 and reversing February's 133,000 decline. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, a tenth below forecasts. The nuance that matters for rates: average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, both below expectations. A hot jobs number with soft wage growth is the Fed's preferred combo and takes an emergency rate hike off the table for now.

Mortgage Rates

30-Year Rate Hits Multi-Month High Mid-Week Before Wage Data Offers Partial Relief

The 30-year fixed mortgage touched its highest level since last August this week, pushed there by rising Treasury yields tied to tariff uncertainty and renewed inflation fears sparked by oil prices. Friday's softer-than-expected wage data in the March jobs report gave the bond market a partial reprieve, helping yields stabilize around 4.31% after reaching intraday highs above 4.38%. Mortgage rates remain elevated but appear to be finding a near-term ceiling, with the Freddie Mac PMMS weekly survey reporting 6.46% as of April 2.

Housing Market

Inventory Builds in More Markets as Rate Spike Sidelines Buyers for Second Straight Week

Rising rates are having a predictable effect on buyer traffic, with housing economists warning the timing is "inopportune" heading into the critical spring selling season. More markets are tipping toward buyer-friendly conditions as listings accumulate faster than contracts are signed. For brokers, this is actually a working environment: motivated sellers are more willing to negotiate on price and rate buydowns, and buyers willing to move now face less competition than they would in a normalized rate environment.

Home Equity

HELOC and Home Equity Rates Remain Near 3-Year Lows While Primary Mortgage Rates Surge

While purchase and refinance rates have climbed sharply this week, home equity lines of credit and home equity loans are holding near multi-year lows, with the average HELOC rate at 7.20% and home equity loan rates around 7.47%. These products are tied to the prime rate, which remains close to a 3-year low as the Fed holds steady. For borrowers sitting on substantial equity who need liquidity without touching their first mortgage rate, HELOCs remain an underutilized option worth putting in front of your purchase clients who are hesitating on a move-up buy.

Non-QM Spotlight

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DSCR Loans Are Beating Conventional on Investment Property Pricing

With conventional investment property rates climbing back above 6.50% and Fannie/Freddie loan-level price adjustments (LLPAs) stacking up, DSCR loans are now pricing competitively or better in many scenarios. DSCR rates currently run 5.875% to 7.375% for qualified borrowers, and the qualification process skips income documentation entirely, qualifying the deal on rental income alone. If you're sitting on real estate investor clients who've been frustrated by conventional overlays, now is the time to revisit the DSCR conversation.

Run a DSCR scenario →

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P&L Loans: The Answer When Strong Cash Flow Can't Survive the Tax Return

Business owners and self-employed borrowers who write off aggressively end up with tax returns that tell a story their actual income doesn't support. A 12- or 24-month P&L prepared by a CPA can be used in place of tax returns on non-QM P&L loans, qualifying borrowers on their actual operating income. With today's strong jobs market pushing more workers into independent contractor and small-business arrangements, this product line is expanding its audience. If a borrower's Schedule C shows $40K but the business deposits suggest $180K, you have a non-QM deal.

Submit a P&L scenario →

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Fix-and-Flip Non-QM: Capital Is Back and Lender Competition Is Heating Up

After a difficult 2024 when hard-money rates hit 10%+, the fix-and-flip lending market is recovering. Easing inventory constraints, improving lender competition, and structural cost advantages for experienced flippers are setting the stage for renewed activity. Several non-QM lenders now offer bridge and fix-and-flip products with rates in the 8.5%-10% range and loan amounts up to $20M, well down from peak pricing. For brokers in markets with older housing stock, this is a conversation worth reopening with investor clients who may have paused projects.

Explore bridge options →

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Near-Prime Non-QM: The 620-659 Score Borrower Conventional Won't Touch

Conventional guidelines effectively price out borrowers in the 620-659 credit score range through LLPAs that make the rate and MI cost unworkable. Non-QM near-prime programs fill this gap, offering fully documented loans with reasonable pricing for borrowers who have stable income and assets but a blemished credit history. As the job market has cooled from its 2022 peak, more buyers are entering the market with this profile, often with solid income from the March jobs report's dominant hiring sectors. This is a product line worth having on speed dial.

Submit a near-prime file →

Nate's Take

Today's jobs number was a genuine surprise. 178,000 payrolls versus a 57,000 consensus is not a rounding error — that's a labor market that clearly didn't get the recession memo the bond market was writing earlier this week. The knee-jerk read is that a strong jobs number is bad for rates because it reduces the odds of a Fed cut. But the wage data complicates that narrative in a good way: earnings grew just 0.2% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, both below forecasts. For the Fed, that combination — job creation without wage acceleration — is about as clean as it gets. It keeps inflation expectations anchored and takes emergency action off the table in both directions.

For your clients and pipeline: this week's rate spike was driven by tariff anxiety and the Liberation Day anniversary, not by the underlying economy breaking down. The 10-year Treasury is settling around 4.31% after touching higher earlier in the week, and if next week's CPI and PCE data come in tame, you could see rates give back 10-15 bps before end of month. That's worth noting when a borrower is on the fence about locking. If they have a 30-45 day window, floating with a cap or going shorter on a lock period makes sense. If they're inside 15 days, lock it. A CPI surprise next Thursday could move rates the other way in a hurry.

This Week's Calendar

Next week is stacked with inflation data that will set the tone for Q2 rates. Watch these four in order of market impact:

Wed Apr 9: GDP 3rd Release (Q4 2025 final) + Personal Income & PCE Deflator — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, published same morning.
Thu Apr 10: Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the most market-moving print of the week. Any upside surprise here sends yields higher immediately.
Thu Apr 10: Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) — a real-time read on how tariff uncertainty and rate volatility are hitting household confidence.
Mon Apr 6: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) — a leading indicator for goods inflation; worth watching given active tariff escalation.