Morning Brief — Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Key Catalysts — Today

Tuesday, Apr 14 — Producer Price Index (PPI), March 2026

PPI +0.5% MoM — Half What the Street Feared

March PPI came in at +0.5% month-over-month against a consensus estimate of +1.1% — the softer side of the range and a genuine relief print after last week's hot CPI. The monthly beat was driven almost entirely by an 8.5% surge in energy prices (tied to the Iran war supply disruption), while services PPI was flat. The year-over-year figure hit 4.0%, the highest since February 2023, but the market was already braced for that. The key takeaway: outside of energy, pipeline inflation is not accelerating. That's meaningful for the Fed's calculus and gives rates room to stay near recent lows rather than spiking higher.

Tuesday, Apr 14 — IMF World Economic Outlook

Global Growth Gets Downgraded. Trade Disruption and Energy Costs Are the Culprits.

The IMF released its updated World Economic Outlook this morning, trimming global growth projections for 2026 due to tariff-driven trade disruption and elevated energy costs from the Iran conflict. The U.S. growth forecast was revised down, with the IMF flagging stagflation risk — slower growth with persistent inflation. For bond markets, a weaker global outlook typically triggers flight-to-safety buying in Treasuries, which pushes yields lower and pulls mortgage rates with them. The net effect today is a relatively stable rate environment: PPI relief offset by IMF stagflation language.

Data In — Existing Home Sales, March 2026

March Existing Sales Fall 3.6% to 3.98 Million. Inventory Builds to 4.1 Months.

March existing-home sales came in at a 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 3.6% from February. Median sales price held at $408,800 and active inventory rose to 4.1 months of supply — the highest since early 2020. The inventory build is structurally positive for buyers and brokers: more supply means more deal flow for clients who have been waiting on the sidelines. At 6.15-6.18% rates, the affordability math still isn't easy, but it's meaningfully better than the 6.64% peak from earlier this month. Motivated sellers and improving inventory is a combination that creates real urgency conversations for your pipeline.

This Week — Economic Calendar

Housing Starts and Initial Claims on Thursday. Freddie Mac PMMS Also Drops.

The rest of the week features Housing Starts for March (Thursday), Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday). Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey also releases Thursday morning and will be the most-watched rate benchmark for the week. Builders have been dealing with tariff-driven material cost increases — copper and steel up 20%+ year-over-year — so a soft starts number would reinforce the supply shortage narrative. Watch initial claims: if they start creeping up, it adds pressure on the Fed to prioritize growth over inflation.

Non-QM Watch

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DSCR Basics: No Tax Returns, Just Cash Flow

DSCR loans qualify based entirely on the property's rental income vs. PITIA. No personal income docs, no tax returns, no employment verification. Minimum 1.0x DSCR unlocks most programs; 1.25x+ gets the best pricing and LTV. For investors with heavy write-offs that kill their conventional DTI, this is the product that changes the conversation. With rates at 6.18% and DSCR programs ranging from ~6.0-7.5%, the buy box for cash-flowing rentals is opening back up in many markets.

Price a DSCR scenario →

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P&L Only: Skip the Bank Statements

Self-employed borrowers who prefer not to share 12-24 months of bank activity have a clean alternative: P&L-only qualification through a CPA-prepared Profit & Loss statement. No tax returns, no bank statements. The trade-off is slightly lower max LTV (around 85%), a 660+ FICO floor, and the CPA must be licensed and named on the letter. For business owners who run lean books and prefer a clean documentation path, this is the right tool — especially in a market where qualified self-employed buyers are actively looking.

Ask about P&L programs →

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Asset Depletion: Wealth Without a W-2

Borrowers with significant investable assets can convert those holdings into a qualifying monthly income stream without selling a single share. Divide eligible assets (minus down payment and closing costs) by the loan term in months. A borrower with $2M in a brokerage account and a $600K loan can generate roughly $4,167/month of calculated income — no job required. This program is ideal for early retirees, tech employees between roles, and high-net-worth borrowers who live off portfolio distributions rather than a paycheck.

Run an asset depletion scenario →

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DSCR vs. Schedule E: Why Rental Investors Win With Non-QM

Conventional lenders calculate rental income off Schedule E — netting out depreciation and expenses, which often eliminates qualifying income entirely for investors with large depreciation write-downs. Non-QM DSCR lenders skip Schedule E entirely and look directly at gross rent vs. PITIA. For investors who own 3+ properties with heavy depreciation on their returns, the difference between conventional denial and a DSCR approval can be a single conversation about how income is calculated.

Talk through a rental portfolio scenario →

Nate’s Take

PPI was the test this morning and it passed. +0.5% vs. a 1.1% consensus is a meaningful beat to the downside on inflation, and the services line being flat is exactly the signal the Fed needs to eventually justify cuts. Yes, the YoY figure at 4.0% sounds alarming, but energy is doing almost all the work — and energy is a ceasefire negotiation, not a structural inflation problem.

The practical takeaway for brokers: rates held near last Sunday's 6.15% low rather than reversing sharply as many feared. The window is still open. If you have DSCR investors, bank statement borrowers, or self-employed buyers who've been watching rates, today's PPI print gives you a concrete reason to pick up the phone. The data supported rates; now it's your turn to convert that into conversations.