Morning Brief — Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Key Catalysts — Today

Wednesday, Apr 22 — FOMC Minutes, March 2026 Meeting

Fed Minutes Release Today. The Market Will Read Every Word for Cut Timing Signals.

The minutes from the March FOMC meeting release this afternoon. The Fed held at 3.50-3.75% and the minutes are expected to confirm a committee deeply split between growth concern and inflation persistence. Specifically, markets are watching for references to: tariff-driven goods inflation (likely to be described as "transitory" or "persistent" — the word choice matters), labor market durability, and any mention of Q3 as a potential cut window. With the ceasefire extended and oil near $93, the inflation picture is slightly better than it was in March. If the minutes acknowledge that, it could be a mild positive for rates. If the committee appears overwhelmingly hawkish, some of yesterday's 10bp gain reverses.

Wednesday, Apr 22 — Ceasefire Status

The Original Deadline Has Passed. The Ceasefire Extension Is Holding — For Now.

The original two-week ceasefire expired today but Trump's announced extension is in effect. Oil is holding near $93-95/barrel, down substantially from the pre-ceasefire $112+ range. The ceasefire extension removed the most acute downside risk for rates this week — the scenario where oil spikes back to $115+ on renewed hostilities is off the table for the immediate term. However, the extension is indefinite rather than a formal peace agreement, which means geopolitical risk remains a factor in any rate forecast. The next test will come when and if formal talks resume in Islamabad or another neutral venue.

Wednesday, Apr 22 — Rate Context

30-Yr at 6.08% Is the Best Sustained Rate Level Since Early April. This Is the Window.

Rates opened Wednesday at 6.08% — just 3bps above yesterday's 6.05% as some mild profit-taking in Treasuries pulled yields back slightly from their low. The 10-yr sits at 4.23%, which remains among the lowest readings in recent weeks. The rate environment right now reflects the best combination of factors we've had since the ceasefire was first announced April 8: mild inflation data (PPI +0.5%), oil below $95, a labor market that isn't cracking (207K claims), and an extended ceasefire. None of those factors is guaranteed to persist, but they're all aligned right now.

This Week & Next — Spring Pipeline Opportunity

The Rate Move From 6.40% to 6.08% Over Two Weeks Is a Legitimate Urgency Conversation

Since the peak of 6.40% in mid-April, rates have improved roughly 32 basis points to today's 6.08%. On a $500K loan, that difference translates to approximately $108/month in payment savings. For DSCR investors, a 32bps rate improvement on a $400K rental loan improves monthly cash flow by roughly $85/month — which can swing a marginal DSCR from 0.95x to 1.05x on the same property. These numbers are real and they're happening right now. The conversations you have this week are the locks that capture this level before the ceasefire narrative gets more complicated.

Non-QM Watch

📋

P&L Only: The Self-Employed Fast Track

With rates at 6.08%, self-employed borrowers who qualify via P&L-only have a real entry point right now. P&L programs require no tax returns and no bank statements — just a CPA-prepared Profit & Loss showing sufficient income. The trade-off is a slightly higher FICO floor (660+), max LTV around 85%, and the CPA must be licensed and named on the letter. For business owners who run lean books, prefer privacy around bank activity, or have a 2025 return that doesn't reflect their current income picture, P&L-only is the cleanest path at today's rates.

Price a P&L-only scenario →

📅

12-Month vs. 24-Month Bank Statements: Picking the Right Window Today

With rates moving quickly, choosing the right bank statement window can be the difference between qualifying now and waiting. If a borrower had a strong 2025 and is on track for an even stronger 2026, a 12-month program captures their best income picture. If 2024 was better than 2025 and there's a dip in more recent months, 24 months smooths the picture and may produce higher qualifying income. The decision is file-specific — always run both scenarios before committing to a documentation strategy. At 6.08%, getting the income calculation right is what gets this deal closed.

Run bank statement income calculations →

🔗

Blending W-2 + Bank Statement for Maximum Qualification

Borrowers who have both employment income and self-employment business income don't have to choose between them. Non-QM lenders allow income blending: W-2 wages plus bank statement business deposits, combined for a higher total qualifying income. A borrower earning $7K/month in W-2 wages and $4K/month in business deposits (verified via 12-month bank statements) qualifies on $11K/month rather than having to choose one source. At today's rates, that combined income picture could push purchase power $100-150K higher than a single-source qualification. These conversations are worth having with any borrower who has both a day job and a side business.

Structure a blended income loan →

📋

DSCR vs. Schedule E: The Rental Investor Conversation That Changes Outcomes

With DSCR rates improving alongside conventional rates today, the DSCR vs. Schedule E conversation is more relevant than ever for investors with existing portfolios. Conventional lenders use Schedule E to calculate rental income, netting out depreciation and expenses and often reducing or eliminating the qualifying income. DSCR lenders skip Schedule E entirely and look at gross rent vs. PITIA. For investors who've bought 3+ properties and have accumulated significant depreciation write-downs, the DSCR path can mean the difference between qualifying for the next acquisition and being told "your Schedule E shows a rental loss."

Compare DSCR vs. conventional →

Nate’s Take

Rates at 6.08%, ceasefire extended, FOMC minutes this afternoon. We're in the best rate environment since the Iran war began, and it's held for two days now. The question isn't whether to act — it's whether your clients know this is happening. Most people following mortgage rates on the news are still reading headlines from two weeks ago. They think rates are in the 6.3-6.4% range. They don't know we're at 6.08%. That information gap is your opportunity.

Today's FOMC minutes will add another layer of clarity. If the Fed signals it's moving toward cuts, the momentum continues. If the minutes are hawkish, there may be a modest pullback. Either way, 6.08% is a legitimate number that you can work with today. The brokers who make calls this morning — before the minutes drop, before the next geopolitical headline, before clients start second-guessing themselves — are the ones who convert this environment into May closings. That's the game. Play it.