Morning Brief — Friday, April 24, 2026

Key Catalysts — Today

Friday, Apr 24 — Weekly Rate Close

The 30-Year Closes the Week at 6.24% — Near a Four-Week Low and Well Off the April Highs.

Rates drifted up just 1bp on Friday to 6.24% as bond markets settled into the weekend ahead of a data-heavy week. The week's rate story is broadly positive: Freddie Mac's Thursday PMMS came in at 6.23%, down 7bps from last week, and the 30-year has held near its best levels since the ceasefire was announced April 8. The 10-year Treasury yield closed around 4.33% — slightly elevated but contained. With no major data releases today, Friday's slight drift was driven by light profit-taking rather than any fundamental change in the rate outlook. The rate environment closes the week looking constructive.

Friday, Apr 24 — Week in Review

Two Weeks of Improvement: PPI Soft, Claims Mild, Freddie Down 7bps, Ceasefire Holding.

Looking back at the week: FOMC minutes from the March meeting were digested without shock on Wednesday. Jobless claims Thursday came in at 214K (mild uptick) but continuing claims hit a two-year low. Freddie Mac reported the best PMMS since early April. The ceasefire extension remains intact. Oil is holding near $92-94/bbl. None of the week's data points gave the bond market a reason to sell off. The result is a 30-year that held in the 6.05-6.24% range all week — the tightest, most favorable range in over a month. That kind of stability is what gives borrowers confidence to lock.

Next Week — FOMC & PCE

FOMC Decision Wednesday Apr 29. PCE Inflation Friday May 1. The Most Consequential Week of the Spring.

Next week is the most rate-sensitive week of the spring. Tuesday-Wednesday April 28-29 brings the FOMC two-day meeting, with the rate decision and press conference Wednesday afternoon. The Fed is universally expected to hold at 3.50-3.75%, so the market impact will come entirely from Powell's language on cut timing. Then on Friday May 1, the PCE Price Index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — drops alongside ISM Manufacturing PMI and Q1 GDP (Thursday April 30). If PCE runs soft and GDP is healthy, the current rate level holds or improves. If PCE surprises hot, expect a 15-25bp reversal. The mortgage market is coiled for a big move either direction.

Friday, Apr 24 — Spring Pipeline

Rates at Their Best Level in Three Spring Homebuying Seasons. The Market Is Responding.

Multiple data points confirm that buyers and borrowers are responding to the rate improvement. MBA purchase applications are up week-over-week. Pending home sales rose 1.5% MoM in March. Refinance activity is ticking up for Non-QM borrowers placed in 2023-2024 at higher rates. The market is moving. The question for every originator right now is: are the borrowers in your pipeline moving too? The window between today's 6.24% and whatever next week's FOMC/PCE delivers is the most actionable rate environment of the year so far. Use Friday afternoon to set up Monday conversations.

Non-QM Watch

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STR DSCR: Short-Term Rental Income That Counts

A growing number of DSCR lenders now accept AirDNA or STR manager revenue data to support rent income on short-term rentals. Not every lender is there yet — but for borrowers running profitable STRs in vacation markets, this opens a powerful financing path. At 6.24%, a $400K STR purchase with 25% down has a PITIA around $2,200/month. If trailing 12-month STR revenue averages $2,700/month, that's a 1.23x DSCR on the STR income alone. Look for lenders that accept trailing 12-month revenue as the qualifying rent figure rather than long-term market rent.

Price a short-term rental DSCR →

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DTI on Non-QM: Where Does It Actually Max Out?

Non-QM DTI limits are more flexible than conventional but not unlimited. Bank statement and P&L programs often go to 50-55% with compensating factors — strong reserves, FICO 720+, and LTV below 70%. DSCR is property-based, so DTI isn't the qualifying metric at all. Asset depletion uses the calculated income to determine DTI. At today's rates, a borrower with 55% DTI who has 12+ months reserves may still qualify where they'd be declined conventionally. Always check lender-specific overlays, since DTI caps vary significantly by product and risk tier.

Run a high-DTI scenario →

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Foreign National Loans: US Real Estate, No US Credit

Foreign national programs let non-US citizens living abroad purchase US investment or vacation properties using foreign income docs and alternative credit references. Expect 25-30% down, higher rates than domestic programs, and additional documentation requirements. Entity vesting is allowed — offshore LLC structuring adds complexity but is common. For a US-based broker with international clients or connections, this is a niche that very few competitors serve well. A single closed foreign national deal often leads to referrals within that borrower's network.

Submit a foreign national scenario →

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ITIN Loans: Homeownership for Non-Citizens

ITIN loans serve borrowers who file US taxes with an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number rather than a Social Security number. Many lenders accept alternative credit (rental history, utilities, insurance payments) in place of a traditional FICO. Primary residence only at most lenders, with 80% LTV and standard income documentation. This is a growing and underserved borrower segment — communities with large ITIN-filing populations represent a real pipeline opportunity for brokers willing to learn the product and build referral relationships with CPAs and tax preparers who serve that clientele.

Price an ITIN loan scenario →

Nate’s Take

Heading into the weekend at 6.24% is the best Friday close we've had since January. The two-week run from 6.55% to 6.24% is real, it's documented, and it's actionable. Friday afternoon is the underrated prospecting window. Most originators check out at noon. The ones who send a rate update text at 2pm on Friday are the ones who get the callback on Monday morning when borrowers are ready to move.

Keep it simple heading into next week: FOMC Wednesday, PCE Friday. If you have borrowers on the fence, give them the honest picture — today's 6.24% is the best rate in months and next week could go either way. The ones who want to wait may miss this level. The ones who lock today have certainty. That's the conversation. Have it before Monday.