NonQM Nate — Morning Brief
Durable Goods Disappoint. Rates Edge Down to 6.26% to Open FOMC Week.
Monday, April 27, 2026 — FOMC Meeting Begins Tomorrow
30-Yr Fixed
6.26%
▼ −2 bps
15-Yr Fixed
5.60%
▼ −2 bps
5/1 ARM
6.43%
▼ −2 bps
10-Yr Treasury
4.31%
▼ −3 bps
Today’s Catalysts
Monday, Apr 27 — Durable Goods Orders (March)
March Durable Goods: −0.9% Headline, +0.4% Ex-Transportation. Soft Signal Gives Bonds a Light Tailwind.
March Durable Goods Orders came in at −0.9% month-over-month on the headline — pulled down by a sharp drop in commercial aircraft orders, which are notoriously lumpy and not a reliable economic signal. Stripping out transportation, orders rose a modest +0.4%, which tells a different and more constructive story: core business investment is still moving forward, just not at a pace that worries the Fed. For mortgage rates, this is the kind of soft-but-not-scary data that gives Treasuries a gentle bid. The 10-yr slipped 3 basis points to 4.31%, pulling the 30-yr to 6.26% — a 2 basis point improvement from Friday's close. Not a market-mover, but a clean start to what will be a very eventful week.
Tuesday, Apr 28 — FOMC Meeting Begins
Fed Goes Into Blackout Mode. Markets Park Risk Heading Into Two-Day Meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day April meeting tomorrow. The rate decision and Powell press conference drop Wednesday afternoon at 2:00 PM ET. A hold at 3.50–3.75% is fully priced — not a single credible analyst expects a move. What the market is actually trading is the press conference language. Fed speakers are now in blackout period, meaning no public comments until after Wednesday's announcement. That communication vacuum tends to keep rates in a tight range Monday and Tuesday as traders avoid taking big directional positions before the press conference. Expect modest volume and a relatively stable rate picture into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday–Friday — The Big Three
FOMC Wednesday. GDP Thursday. PCE Friday. Three Shots at Changing the Rate Picture.
After a quiet Monday and Tuesday, the week accelerates fast. Wednesday brings the FOMC decision and Powell's press conference — where tone, not action, is the market event. Thursday delivers the Q1 GDP advance estimate and the Employment Cost Index (ECI), giving the first comprehensive look at Q1 growth and wage pressure simultaneously. Friday closes the week with PCE — the Fed's actual inflation target — alongside ISM Manufacturing. This is the highest-density data week of the spring. The 30-yr at 6.26% reflects two weeks of improvement earned by soft PPI, stable labor, and ceasefire calm. Each day this week has the power to validate or reverse that. The playbook: lock before Wednesday afternoon on anything where the borrower values certainty over potential upside.
Spring Pipeline — Rate Context
6.26% Is the Best Rate in Three Spring Seasons. The Window Is Open — For Now.
The 30-yr fixed at 6.26% represents the lowest sustained rate environment since spring 2024. Buyers who've been sitting on the sidelines watching for "rates in the 5s" haven't gotten there — but borrowers who locked in the 6.10–6.30% range over the last two weeks are already in a historically favorable position for this cycle. The opportunity is real and the data supports it. What's not guaranteed is that it survives the week intact. A hawkish Powell or a hot PCE Friday could push rates 15–20 basis points higher before May begins. For brokers working spring purchase files: the urgency conversation with clients is easy and credible right now. Use it.
Non-QM Watch
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Non-QM Pricing: What Actually Drives Your Rate
With rates moving around during FOMC week, it helps to understand what drives Non-QM pricing specifically. Five main factors: FICO score, LTV, DSCR ratio (for investment), income documentation type, and property type. FICO below 680 and LTV above 75% are the biggest rate movers. The difference between a 640 FICO and a 720 FICO on the same DSCR deal can be 75–150 basis points. When FOMC week pushes rates around, understanding which borrower factors offer the most improvement is how you find room to move on pricing.
Price a scenario →
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Cash-Out Refi: Non-QM Investors Are Pulling Equity
DSCR cash-out refinance is one of the most powerful tools for portfolio investors — especially those sitting on equity from appreciation. Max LTV on DSCR cash-out is typically 70–75%, but investors who bought 3–4 years ago in appreciating markets can often pull $100K–$400K+ for the next acquisition. No income docs, no employment — just the property's DSCR and the borrower's FICO. With rates at their best level in months, the cash-out conversation is both timely and credible. Investors who locked in 2023–2024 vintage DSCR debt now have the rate and the equity to make a move.
Run a cash-out DSCR scenario →
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Rental Income: Non-QM vs. Conventional — A Key Difference
Conventional lenders use Schedule E from tax returns for rental income — netting out depreciation and expenses, which often eliminates or significantly reduces qualifying income for investors with aggressive write-down strategies. Non-QM DSCR lenders skip that entirely: they look directly at rental income vs. PITIA. For investors with large depreciation write-downs (which is most serious real estate investors), this is a genuine game-changer. The borrower who looks broke on paper because of smart tax planning often qualifies cleanly on DSCR without any income documentation at all.
Submit a DSCR investor file →
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Blending Income Sources: When One Stream Isn’t Enough
Borrowers don't always have to pick just one income documentation type. Many Non-QM lenders allow blending — W-2 income combined with bank statement business income, employment wages plus rental income from DSCR properties, or W-2 income supplemented by asset depletion. Combining income sources can unlock qualification where a single stream falls short of the DTI threshold. For the W-2 borrower with a side business or a small rental portfolio, a blended income analysis often closes the gap between "doesn't qualify" and "approved." Ask for the full picture before submitting a decline.
Structure a blended income scenario →
Nate’s Take

Today is the calm before the storm — and the 2-basis-point rate improvement this morning is exactly the kind of modest tailwind that makes the lock-or-float conversation feel manageable. Durable Goods were soft on the headline but fine underneath. The 10-yr pulled back to 4.31%. Rates are at 6.26% heading into the most consequential data stretch of the spring.

Here's how I'm thinking about it: The current rate isn't a gift you're going to improve significantly by waiting. The upside scenario — a dovish Powell plus a cool PCE — might get you to 6.10–6.15% by Friday. That's a real outcome but not a guaranteed one. The downside scenario — hawkish guidance or a hot PCE — puts rates back above 6.40% before the weekend. The asymmetry favors locking. For borrowers in contract or ready to move, the case for certainty is as strong as it's been all spring.

That said, if a borrower genuinely understands the risk and wants to play for PCE Friday, that's a defensible position. Just make sure they hear what "playing for it" actually means this week. Wednesday afternoon is the first decision point. If Powell sounds hawkish, the float decision is over — and the borrower who waited takes the pain. Brief them accordingly.