Morning Brief — Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Today’s Catalysts

Tuesday, Apr 28 — Consumer Confidence (April)

Consumer Confidence Falls to 97.2. Tariff Uncertainty and Job Market Anxiety Weigh on the Index.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for April came in at 97.2, below the 100.5 consensus and down from 103.1 in March. The "present situation" component held relatively firm at 128.4, but the "expectations" component — which reflects forward-looking consumer sentiment — dropped sharply to 76.8, its lowest reading since late 2024. Consumers cited concerns about tariffs, price stability, and job market softness as the primary drag. For mortgage rates, a weaker confidence print is modestly bond-friendly — it reinforces the narrative that the economy is softening, which keeps pressure on the Fed to stay open to cuts. The 10-yr dipped to 4.29%, pulling the 30-yr to 6.25%.

Tuesday, Apr 28 — FOMC Meeting Day One

Fed Enters Two-Day Meeting. Blackout Period in Full Effect. Decision and Press Conference Tomorrow at 2 PM ET.

The Federal Open Market Committee's April meeting officially convenes today, with the rate decision and Jerome Powell's press conference scheduled for tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET. The Fed is in full communications blackout — no Fed speak, no leaks, no prepared market signals. A hold at 3.50–3.75% is 100% priced in by futures markets. The only question that actually matters for mortgage rates is what Powell says about the path forward: Does he signal openness to a summer cut? Does he lean hawkish on tariff-driven inflation? Does he stay carefully neutral and give nothing? Each scenario has a different 15–25 basis point impact on the 30-yr. Markets are parked and waiting. Volume is light. Rates are drifting 1–2 basis points lower on the consumer confidence data.

Lock or Float — The Wednesday Decision

The Last Clean Chance to Lock Is Before 2 PM Tomorrow. After That, You’re Reacting to Powell.

The 30-yr at 6.25% today represents a 30+ basis point improvement from the early April peak. For borrowers in contract, this is a position worth protecting. The lock-or-float framework for this week is unusually binary: before Wednesday's press conference, you're playing offense; after Wednesday, you're reacting. A dovish Powell who signals June cut openness could push rates to 6.05–6.15% — real upside. A hawkish Powell who emphasizes tariff-driven inflation risks could push rates back to 6.40%+. Thursday's GDP and Friday's PCE add two more market-moving variables. Borrowers who want certainty have a clean window right now. Make sure they understand that window closes tomorrow afternoon.

Pipeline Context — Spring 2026

Purchase Applications Rose for the Third Straight Week. Inventory Is Loosening. The Market Is Moving.

MBA Purchase Application data shows purchase activity rising for the third consecutive week, up 4.1% week-over-week as buyers respond to the rate improvement since early April. New listing inventory is up 12% year-over-year nationally, giving buyers more options without the bidding war pressure of 2022–2023. Self-employed buyers, real estate investors, and buyers with complex income situations who were priced out at 7%+ are actively re-engaging at these levels. The Non-QM pipeline in particular looks strong heading into May — bank statement files, DSCR acquisitions, and 1-year tax return scenarios are all moving. The key for brokers: get deals structured and priced before the FOMC week potentially reshuffles the deck.

Non-QM Watch

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12 vs. 24 Month Bank Statements: Which One Wins?

Both 12 and 24-month bank statement programs require no tax returns, but the right choice depends on the borrower's income pattern. 24-month programs average a longer income picture, smoothing out seasonal dips — often allowing higher DTI as a result. If a borrower had one standout year, 12 months may show better qualifying income. If income is trending upward year-over-year, 24 months usually wins by showcasing growth. Always run both scenarios before choosing: the difference in qualifying income can be significant, and it's an easy analysis to do before you submit.

Compare 12 vs. 24-month options →

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P&L Only Loans: When Bank Statements Aren’t the Move

Some self-employed borrowers prefer not to disclose 12–24 months of bank activity. P&L-only programs allow income qualification through a CPA-prepared Profit & Loss statement — no tax returns, no bank statements required. The tradeoffs are modest: slightly lower max LTV (around 85%), a higher FICO floor (660+), and the CPA must be licensed and named on the letter. For borrowers who have the income but want privacy or whose bank statements are messy with business/personal commingling, this is a cleaner path than forcing a bank statement review.

Structure a P&L scenario →

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Reserve Requirements: What Non-QM Lenders Actually Want

Non-QM reserve requirements vary significantly by product and risk profile, and knowing them upfront saves deals. DSCR loans typically require 6–12 months PITIA per financed property. Bank statement programs: 3–6 months. Foreign national: 12 months minimum. The key detail most brokers miss: reserves don't have to be liquid cash. Checking, savings, retirement accounts (at 70%), and brokerage accounts all count. Structuring your submission to clearly document eligible reserves is one of the fastest ways to clean up a borderline approval and avoid a last-minute condition.

Verify reserve eligibility on a scenario →

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Seasoning Requirements: When Can They Actually Close?

Many brokers hear "major credit event" and assume years of waiting. Non-QM is significantly more flexible. Typical timelines: Chapter 7 bankruptcy — 12–24 months from discharge (some programs have no waiting period). Foreclosure completion — 12–36 months. Short sale — 12–24 months. Getting ahead of seasoning timelines is one of the highest-value conversations a broker can have with a past client. A borrower who went through a foreclosure 18 months ago may already qualify today. Pull your old files — there's probably a pipeline in there.

Check seasoning eligibility on a file →

Nate’s Take

Today is the last quiet day before this week gets loud. Consumer confidence missed, the 10-yr is at 4.29%, and the 30-yr is sitting at 6.25% — 1 basis point better than Monday. Nothing is moving dramatically because the market knows tomorrow is what matters, and it's not going to make big directional bets before Powell speaks.

The practical implication for your pipeline is simple: you have a window right now. 6.25% is real, it's current, and it's one of the best sustained rate environments in three spring seasons. A borrower who locks today locks into that. A borrower who waits until Thursday or Friday is making a bet on GDP and PCE going their way, with a hawkish FOMC press conference as the tail risk in between.

My take: for purchase files that are under contract and ready to move, the urgency conversation is credible and the rate is genuinely good. Lock them. For float-down borrowers who are further out in the pipeline, let the week develop — but set the expectation that rates could be higher by Friday, not lower. The data this week is real. Treat it that way.