Morning Brief — Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Today’s Catalysts

Wednesday, Apr 29 — FOMC Decision (2:00 PM ET)

Fed Holds at 3.50–3.75% for the Third Consecutive Meeting. The Vote Was 8–4 — the Most Divided the Committee Has Been This Cycle.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, marking the third straight meeting with no change. But this wasn't a routine hold. The committee split 8–4, with the dissents telling two different stories: Governor Miran dissented in favor of a 25 basis point cut, arguing the labor market has softened enough to justify easing. On the other side, Governors Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan voted with the majority on the hold but dissented against the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement — a signal they don't want the market reading a cut as imminent. The statement language acknowledged that “inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices” and that “developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook.” Markets absorbed the hold calmly; rates ended essentially unchanged.

Wednesday, Apr 29 — Powell Press Conference

Powell Announces He Will Stay as Fed Chair. Trump’s Legal Campaign “Left Me No Choice.”

In the press conference following the rate decision, Chair Powell made a statement that surprised markets — not about rates, but about tenure. Powell announced he will remain as Federal Reserve Chair despite sustained legal pressure from the Trump administration, saying the attempts to remove him “left me no choice” but to stay and defend the institution's independence. The announcement carried significant implications for Fed credibility and bond market stability. A Powell departure under political pressure would have sent yields sharply higher on institutional uncertainty fears. His decision to stay was received as a net positive for Treasuries and mortgage rates. The 10-yr held at 4.29% through the afternoon session with no meaningful move in either direction.

Rate Market — Post-Decision

30-Yr Holds at 6.25% as the Market Prices Exactly What the Fed Delivered: Nothing.

The hold was 100% priced heading into today. The real question was whether Powell's press conference would lean hawkish (Iran, PCE inflation) or dovish (softening consumer confidence, potential cuts ahead). He threaded the needle — acknowledging elevated energy-driven inflation while keeping the easing bias intact in the statement (over Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan's objections). The net result: rates didn't move. The 30-yr is still at 6.25%, the 10-yr at 4.29%. Tomorrow's Q1 GDP advance estimate is the next real catalyst. Consensus is around 2.3–2.4% annualized — if it comes in soft, we could see a modest rally. If it beats, expect rates to edge higher heading into PCE on Friday.

Looking Ahead — Thursday & Friday

Q1 GDP Thursday. PCE Friday. Two More Shots at Moving the Rate Needle Before May Begins.

The FOMC is behind us but the data week isn't. Q1 GDP advance estimate drops Thursday morning — this is the first comprehensive read on how the economy performed January through March, including the initial impact of tariff pricing, the Iran conflict's drag on consumer confidence, and AI-driven capex. Then Friday delivers PCE — the Fed's actual preferred inflation measure — alongside ISM Manufacturing. If GDP disappoints and PCE holds at the current 3.3–3.5% range, rates may drift lower. If both surprise to the upside, the lock window that's been open all week closes fast.

Non-QM Watch

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Non-QM Refis: The 2024 Vintage Opportunity Is Alive

The Fed's hold means the rate environment isn't changing dramatically in the near term — but it's also meaningfully better than it was 12–18 months ago. Loans originated in 2023 and early 2024 at peak rates represent a real refi pipeline for Non-QM borrowers. The bank statement or DSCR borrower who closed at 7.5%+ is sitting on 100+ basis points of potential improvement. That conversation is credible, easy, and urgent. Don't wait for rates to drop further — the borrower who refi'd in the high 6s while waiting for the 5s missed the window. The window right now is open.

Price a Non-QM refi scenario →

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12 vs. 24 Month Bank Statements: Which Wins?

Both programs skip tax returns, but the choice between them matters for qualifying income. 24-month programs average a longer income picture — useful for smoothing out seasonal dips and often allowing higher DTI. 12-month is better if the borrower had one strong recent year after a slower prior year. If income is trending up year-over-year, 24 months usually wins on paper. If last year was exceptional and the year before was low, 12 months is the better case. Running both and presenting the better one isn't just smart — it's what separates an LO who gets approvals from one who gets declines.

Submit a bank statement scenario →

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DSCR Cash-Out Refi: No Income, Just Equity

With rates at a 3-month low, portfolio investors sitting on equity from the 2021–2023 appreciation run are in a strong cash-out position. DSCR cash-out max LTV is typically 70–75% — but for investors who bought in appreciating markets 3–4 years ago, that can mean pulling $150K–$400K+ for the next acquisition without a single income document. No W-2, no bank statements, no tax returns. Just the property's rent, the PITIA, and the borrower's FICO. This is one of the cleanest origination conversations you can have with a real estate investor right now.

Run a DSCR cash-out scenario →

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Seasoning Requirements: When Can They Actually Close?

Non-QM lenders have specific seasoning timelines that determine when a borrower is eligible. Bankruptcy Chapter 7: 12–24 months from discharge (some programs have no waiting period with sufficient equity). Foreclosure: 12–36 months from completion. Short sale: 12–24 months. Subject property refinance: typically 6 months of ownership. Getting ahead of these timelines now — for borrowers who are close to an eligibility window — is pipeline you can book today for closings in 30–90 days.

Check a seasoning timeline →

Nate’s Take

The Fed did exactly what was priced: nothing. But the story today wasn't the rate decision — it was Powell's announcement that he's staying. That matters for rates more than people realize. A Fed Chair exit under political pressure would have sent the 10-yr higher on institutional credibility concerns alone. His choice to stay removed a tail risk that was quietly baked into bond market positioning. The market's non-reaction today is actually a good reaction.

On the practical side for brokers: rates are still at 6.25% — unchanged from yesterday and at the best sustained level in three spring seasons. The easing bias stayed in the statement over three dissents, which signals the committee hasn't completely shut the door on a summer cut if inflation cooperates. That's not a guarantee, but it's not nothing either.

Tomorrow and Friday are the last two meaningful data events of the week. Q1 GDP consensus is around 2.3%. If GDP softens and PCE Friday prints flat, you might exit the week at 6.15–6.20% — the best rate of 2026. If either surprises high, you give back today's gains and then some. The lock case is still strong. The float case has two more data bullets to dodge before it pays off.