Morning Brief — Friday, May 1, 2026

Today’s Catalysts

Friday, May 1 — ISM Manufacturing (April)

ISM Manufacturing 52.7, Slightly Below 53.0 Consensus — But Prices Paid Surged to the Highest Level Since April 2022.

April ISM Manufacturing came in at 52.7 — an expansion reading, and unchanged from March, but marginally below the 53.0 Wall Street consensus. The headline number was easy to absorb. What wasn't: the Prices Paid component surged to its highest level since April 2022, driven by elevated energy costs in the wake of the Iran conflict and ongoing tariff charges across supply chains. When ISM Prices Paid runs that hot, it tells you that cost pressures haven't turned the corner — companies are still experiencing input cost inflation, which will eventually filter through to consumer prices. For rates, this was the tiebreaker. 10-yr Treasury yields held near 4.39% as the market priced the ISM print as confirmation that inflation remains sticky at the manufacturing level.

Friday, May 1 — Week Recap

The Most Data-Dense Week of the Spring Ends with Rates 10 Basis Points Higher Than Where They Started.

The week started at 6.25% (Tuesday pre-FOMC) and ends at 6.35% — a 10 basis point deterioration across five days that included a Fed hold, an 8–4 dissent, a GDP miss, a PCE print at 3.5%, and now a hot ISM Prices Paid. None of these events were catastrophic in isolation, but together they reinforced the stagflation narrative that has been the dominant rate theme of 2026: growth is softening but inflation isn't cooperating. The best rate of the spring remains 6.05% from April 21. That's now 30 basis points behind us. The question heading into May is whether oil's pullback from $126 to $114 was a one-day event or the start of a trend that could give rates a path back toward 6.10–6.20%.

Next Week — May 5–9

ISM Services Tuesday. Jobs Report Friday May 8. Two Consequential Events After a Week That Gave Rates No Relief.

May opens with a modest rate hangover from this week's data. Next Tuesday brings ISM Services — the larger and arguably more important ISM survey given that the US economy is services-dominated. A strong services PMI with elevated Prices Paid would push rates higher again. Then Friday, May 8 delivers the April Jobs Report — the first since March's surprising 178K beat. Consensus is around 140–160K. A miss might give bonds a modest bid; a beat (especially with wage growth) would likely push the 30-yr back toward 6.50%. The April NFP will set the Fed conversation for the June 16–17 FOMC.

Lock Decision — Friday Guidance

Friday Is Always a Lock Day. With ISM Prices Paid Hot and Rates at 6.35%, the Float Case Gets Harder to Make.

Every Friday is structurally a lock day: weekend gap risk means floating through a two-day close carries asymmetric downside. Today that's amplified. Hot ISM Prices Paid, PCE at 3.5%, and a week of data that uniformly pushed rates higher makes the float argument thin. The bull case for floating: oil continues to pull back, ISM Services next Tuesday comes in soft, and the 10-yr drifts back toward 4.25%. That's plausible but not likely in one week. The bear case: ISM Services prints hot or jobs Friday beats, and rates test 6.50%+. For borrowers with contracts in hand or deals in the pipeline, the certainty of 6.35% is defensible. Brief them accordingly.

Non-QM Watch

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Asset Depletion: Wealth Without W-2s

For borrowers with significant investable assets but no active income — retirees, early-retired executives, trust beneficiaries — asset depletion converts holdings into a qualifying income stream. Divide eligible assets (minus down payment and closing costs) by the loan term in months. A borrower with $2M in a brokerage account and a $500K loan qualifies with roughly $4,167/month of calculated income — no job, no W-2, no tax return income required. Retirement accounts count at 70% of value. For the high-net-worth borrower who looks income-poor on paper, this is often the cleanest qualification path available.

Run an asset depletion scenario →

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Same-Day Pricing: How to Submit Fast and Get Answers Fast

End-of-week is always the time to turn around scenarios quickly for borrowers thinking about the weekend. The essentials for a same-day Non-QM indication: credit score range, LTV, property type, income documentation type, loan purpose, and state. For DSCR: include the estimated rent and PITIA. That's it — no full package required to get an actionable rate range. The borrower who wants to know “can I do this?” before the weekend doesn't need a UW submission. They need a 20-minute conversation and a rate indication. Submit the scenario; the rest comes after.

Get same-day pricing →

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Second Home Bank Statement Loans

Self-employed borrowers with strong income but complex tax returns often can't qualify conventionally for a second home — their Schedule C write-offs kill the income calculation. Bank statement programs solve this: no tax returns, income calculated from 12 or 24 months of deposits, up to 90% LTV on primary, and second home rates are typically only 25–50 bps higher than primary. For the broker whose high-earning self-employed client wants a beach house or mountain cabin but doesn't “fit the box,” this is a natural conversation to have this spring.

Price a second home bank stmt scenario →

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Credit Events: How Long Does Non-QM Actually Wait?

Borrowers are often told they need to wait 7 years after a major credit event. Non-QM doesn't work that way. Typical actual waiting periods: Chapter 7 bankruptcy — 12–24 months from discharge. Foreclosure — 12–36 months from completion. Short sale — 12–24 months. Some programs have no waiting period at all with sufficient equity (25%+) and strong reserves. For a borrower who hit a financial setback in 2023 or 2024 and has been rebuilding since, the eligibility window may already be open. Don't assume they can't qualify — ask the question.

Check a credit event scenario →

Nate’s Take

We started FOMC week at 6.25% and ended it at 6.35%. That's the cost of a Fed hold with a divided committee, a GDP miss that didn't help bonds, a PCE stuck at 3.5%, and ISM Prices Paid running at a 4-year high. None of it was a disaster — but none of it was encouraging either. Rates ended up 10 basis points on the week, and the best rate of the spring (6.05% from April 21) is now 30 basis points in the rearview mirror.

The honest framing for your borrowers heading into the weekend: we had the most consequential data week of the spring, and rates moved modestly higher. That tells you the market isn't panicking — but it also means the tailwinds that drove the April improvement (ceasefire, soft PPI, stable claims) have been partially offset by the inflation reality. Oil at $114 is still the best leading indicator for where rates go next. If Brent continues its pullback toward $100–$105, the PCE story improves, and June cuts become discussable again.

Next week: ISM Services Tuesday and Jobs Friday. For anyone floating, those are your two decision points. If both come in soft, rates might give back 10–15 bps. If either surprises to the upside, you're testing 6.50% before Jobs Friday even hits.