Week in Review — Saturday, May 2, 2026

Week in Review — April 28–May 2

Monday–Tuesday (Apr 28–29) — FOMC Week Opens

Consumer Confidence Slips to 97.2. FOMC Holds 3.50–3.75% on an 8–4 Split. Powell Announces He’s Staying.

The week started with Consumer Confidence falling to 97.2 (vs. 100.5 consensus) on tariff anxiety and forward-looking weakness. Wednesday's FOMC delivered the third consecutive hold at 3.50–3.75%, but the 8–4 vote breakdown was more notable than the decision itself: Miran dissented for a cut; Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented against the easing bias. Chair Powell's announcement that he would remain despite Trump's legal campaign to remove him was received as a net positive for Treasury credibility — the 10-yr held at 4.29% through the decision and press conference. Rates started and ended Tuesday at 6.25%.

Thursday, Apr 30 — GDP + PCE

Q1 GDP: 2.0% (Miss). March PCE: 3.5% YoY (In Line). Freddie PMMS Rises to 6.30%.

Thursday brought the week's most significant data. Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% annualized — below the 2.3–2.4% consensus as consumer spending slowed, though AI-driven investment spending helped soften the miss. PCE printed at 3.5% YoY, in line with forecasts but still 150 basis points above the Fed's 2% target. Freddie Mac's PMMS confirmed the weekly move: 6.30%, up 7 bps from the prior week's 6.23%. The combination of slower growth and sticky inflation pushed the 10-yr to 4.38% by Thursday's close — the stagflation narrative in live action. Brent crude pulled back to $114/bbl from a recent high of $126, the most constructive development of the week for the inflation outlook.

Friday, May 1 — ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing 52.7. Prices Paid Hits Highest Since April 2022. Rates Close at 6.35% Before Partial Friday Recovery.

April ISM Manufacturing printed at 52.7 — slightly below the 53.0 consensus but still in expansion territory. The headline didn't move rates. The Prices Paid component did: surging to its highest reading since April 2022, driven by energy costs and tariff charges. The 10-yr held near 4.39% on the data. The 30-yr touched 6.35% intraday before a modest late-Friday compression brought the daily close nearer to 6.31%. On a week-over-week basis, the 30-yr rose approximately 6–8 bps, ending at the highest level since mid-April.

Week Ahead — May 5–9

ISM Services Tuesday. Jobs Report Friday. Two Data Events That Will Define the Rate Tone Heading Into June’s FOMC.

The next Fed meeting isn't until June 16–17, which means the next two weeks of data will set the stage for the cut-or-hold debate. ISM Services PMI hits Tuesday, May 5 — if Prices Paid remain as elevated as manufacturing, the inflation story doesn't improve. Then Friday, May 8 delivers the April Jobs Report. March came in at 178K (a large beat); consensus for April is around 140–160K. A miss on payrolls alongside softening ISM Services could give rates a 10–15 bp tailwind into mid-May. A beat on both sends the 10-yr back toward 4.50% and puts the 30-yr near 6.50%. CPI follows May 13, PPI May 14.

Non-QM Watch

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Non-QM Pricing: What Actually Drives Your Rate

With rates moving this week, it's worth revisiting what determines Non-QM pricing specifically. Five primary levers: FICO score, LTV, DSCR ratio (for investment), income documentation type, and property type. FICO below 680 and LTV above 75% are the largest rate movers. The gap between a 640 FICO and a 720 FICO on the same DSCR deal can be 75–150 basis points — more than the entire week's worth of macro rate movement. For brokers: the borrower-level pricing conversation often has more leverage than waiting for the Fed to move. Address the FICO before the rate environment.

Get pricing on a scenario →

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1-Year Tax Return: When Last Year Was the Exception

Borrowers who had an unusually low income year — career change, parental leave, business restructuring, aggressive write-offs in a transition year — can often qualify using only the most recent year's return under Non-QM guidelines. Current-year income must clearly support the payment, and a CPA letter explaining the prior-year anomaly dramatically improves approval odds. This is a natural fit for W-2 employees who recently moved into a higher-earning role, or self-employed borrowers who restructured in 2024 and had a strong 2025 but weak 2024.

Discuss a 1-year tax return scenario →

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Non-QM for the W-2 Borrower Who Doesn’t Fit

Not every Non-QM borrower is self-employed. W-2 borrowers fall outside conventional guidelines for a range of reasons: recent job change within the same industry, multiple part-time jobs, high DTI, recent credit events, or large unexplained deposits. Non-QM products like 1-year tax return programs, asset depletion, and near-prime credit products serve these traditionally-employed borrowers who just don't fit the Fannie/Freddie box. If a broker has a W-2 client who can't get conventional approval, the conversation about Non-QM alternatives belongs in the first call.

Structure a W-2 Non-QM file →

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Blending Income Sources: When One Stream Isn’t Enough

Non-QM lenders often allow blending multiple income documentation types within a single loan file. W-2 base income combined with 12-month bank statement business income. Employment wages plus rental income from DSCR-qualifying properties. W-2 wages supplemented by asset depletion from a brokerage account. Combining income sources can unlock qualification where a single stream falls short of the DTI threshold. Before submitting a borderline file, ask: is there an additional documented income stream that can supplement the primary source? The answer is often yes — it just takes a second look.

Build a blended income scenario →

Nate’s Take

This was the week that was supposed to answer the big question: does the spring rate improvement hold? And the answer was: partially. The 30-yr ended the week at 6.31% — about 6–8 bps above where it started Monday. That's not a collapse, but it's also not the validation brokers were hoping for after the April 21 low of 6.05%. The FOMC held as expected, but the 8–4 split, combined with GDP at 2.0% and PCE still at 3.5%, paints a picture of a Fed that isn't ready to move and an economy that's giving them every reason to stay put.

The oil story remains the most important variable no one is talking about. Brent at $114 — pulled back from $126 — is a meaningful development. If that pullback continues, the pass-through to CPI and PCE improves, and the path to June cuts reopens. If oil stabilizes or reverses, the inflation story stays stuck. ISM Prices Paid running at a 4-year high is the direct transmission mechanism.

For May: the pipeline is real, the spring homebuying season is active, and Non-QM continues to be the right tool for a large share of borrowers who don't fit conventional guidelines. Rates in the low 6s are still historically acceptable — they're not 2021, but they're also not 2023. The borrower who needs to move now has a defensible entry point. The borrower who's waiting for the 5s is taking rate risk with no guaranteed timeline. Brief them accordingly.