The 30-year opens Monday at 6.27% — down modestly from Friday's close — as markets take a breath before two top-tier data releases. ISM Services PMI lands tomorrow (Tue May 5) at 10 AM ET, and the April Jobs Report hits Friday May 8. No major releases today means this is the cleanest pipeline-building window of the week. Use it.
The ISM Services PMI for April drops Tuesday May 5 at 10 AM ET. March came in at 54.0 — the 21st consecutive month of expansion. Consensus for April is 51.5–52.0. A print above 52 likely firms rate pressure ahead of Friday's jobs number; below 51 gives bonds a modest bid and could push the 30-yr toward 6.20%. Watch the Prices Paid sub-component — it's been the hot read all spring.
April NFP prints Friday May 8 at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus is 140–160K — well above February's -92K but below March's shocking 178K beat that sent the 30-yr to 6.64%. Unemployment expected to hold near 4.3%. If April re-accelerates, rates test 6.50% again. A miss below 120K would be the market's first real signal that the labor market is softening under tariff pressure.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% in a contentious 8-4 vote on April 29 — the most divided FOMC since October 1992. Kevin Warsh is advancing through Senate confirmation to replace Powell as Chair. Markets are watching closely: Warsh has historically leaned more hawkish on inflation. Any Warsh confirmation signals or commentary this week could ripple into rate expectations heading into the June meeting.
Brent crude is holding near $108–111/bbl as the US-Iran ceasefire remains in place. The ceasefire has been the single biggest rate tailwind since late March — driving the 30-yr from a high of ~6.64% to where it sits today. If oil stays below $115, the rate picture stays constructive. A ceasefire breakdown or Middle East escalation is the tail risk that could reverse everything fast.
No major data releases today means zero gap risk for early locking decisions. This is the cleanest pricing window before ISM tomorrow and Jobs Friday potentially move the market 10–20 bps in either direction. Three conversations worth having today: DSCR investors who've been sitting on the sidelines, self-employed borrowers with solid bank statement income, and 2023–2024 vintage refi candidates who haven't been called yet.
DSCR loans qualify based entirely on the property's cash flow — Gross Rent ÷ PITIA. No personal income, no tax returns, no employment. Minimum DSCR of 1.0x unlocks most programs; 1.25x+ gets the best pricing and LTV. Investors with heavy write-offs are ideal candidates.
Submit a DSCR scenario →The essentials for a same-day Non-QM indication: credit score range, LTV, property type, income doc type (DSCR, bank stmt, W-2, etc.), loan purpose, and state. If it's DSCR — include the rent and estimated PITIA. That's all that's needed. Full package comes after.
Submit a scenario →Loans originated in 2023 and 2024 at peak rates represent a growing refi pipeline as rates ease. Non-QM borrowers who don't qualify conventional can still capture rate relief — and many also benefit from equity gained during the price run-up. Bank statement and DSCR refis are a natural conversation for any borrower you placed 12–18 months ago.
Price a refi scenario →Borrowers with significant investable assets can convert those holdings into a qualifying monthly income stream. Divide eligible assets (minus down payment and closing costs) by the loan term in months. A borrower with $2M in a brokerage account and a $500K loan qualifies with roughly $4,167/month of calculated income — no job required.
Run an asset depletion scenario →