Morning Brief — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

📊Mortgage Market Snapshot

Rates ease further this morning, with the 30-year fixed slipping to 6.44%, the lowest print since before last week's FOMC meeting. Daily trackers are noisy, some show rates as low as 6.35%, others closer to 6.60%, but the average direction is clearly down for a second straight day as bond markets continue to unwind last Wednesday's hawkish overreaction.

A fresh industry survey out today adds useful context: 74.5% of brokers report growing non-QM volume, and DSCR loans now account for roughly 28-29% of all non-QM originations, trailing only bank statement loans as the category's top driver. That's a meaningful data point heading into Thursday's PCE report, since it confirms non-QM demand is holding up regardless of which way conforming rates move.

Practically, this is a good week to separate what you can control from what you can't. You can't move Thursday's PCE print, but you can make sure every self-employed or investor client in your pipeline knows what non-QM options exist at today's pricing rather than waiting on a conforming rate that isn't moving in a straight line.

⚡ This Week's Focus

Thursday's May PCE report remains the week's defining catalyst. Today's easing is a reprieve, not a resolution.

📰Industry Headlines

Non-QM

DSCR Loans Now Make Up Roughly 28-29% of All Non-QM Originations

New survey data released today shows DSCR loans trailing only bank statement products as the top driver of non-QM volume, with 74.5% of brokers reporting growth in their non-QM business overall and 88.4% expecting further increases. For brokers who have treated non-QM as a niche add-on, this is a clear signal it's becoming a core part of the wholesale mix.

Source: AD Mortgage broker survey, June 2026

Rate Watch

30-Year Fixed Eases to 6.44% as Post-FOMC Overreaction Continues to Unwind

Rates fell for a second straight session, continuing to retreat from last Wednesday's hawkish dot-plot spike. The move is orderly rather than dramatic, and most of the pullback reflects repositioning rather than a genuine change in the inflation outlook. Thursday's PCE report will be the real test of whether this relief has legs.

Source: Daily rate trackers, June 2026

Housing Market

No-Ratio Loans Gain Traction as DSCR Deals Tighten for Investors

With DSCR coverage ratios facing tighter underwriting after 2023-24 vintage stress, more investors are turning to no-ratio programs that skip the rent-to-payment test entirely. This is worth flagging to investor clients whose deals no longer pencil under stricter DSCR minimums, since a no-ratio structure can still get a marginal deal to the closing table.

Source: National Mortgage Professional, June 2026

Fed Policy

Bond Markets Continue to Digest Last Week's Hawkish Dot Plot

With nine of eighteen FOMC officials now projecting a 2026 hike, traders are still working through what that means for the rest of the year. The lack of consensus is itself notable, a Fed this divided creates more room for data surprises to move rates sharply in either direction.

Source: Federal Reserve commentary, June 2026

💬Consumer & Investor Talking Points

"DSCR loans are now the second-biggest driver of non-QM volume in the country. There's a reason investors keep coming back to them."

For Real Estate Investors

New data shows DSCR loans make up nearly 30% of all non-QM originations nationally, second only to bank statement loans. That's not a coincidence, it reflects real demand from investors who need a lending product that looks at property cash flow instead of personal income. If your deal doesn't pencil under tighter DSCR minimums, let's talk about a no-ratio structure instead.

"Rates dipped today, but let's not build a plan around a print that could reverse Thursday."

For Borrowers Floating a Rate

The 30-year eased to 6.44% this morning as markets continue digesting last week's Fed meeting, but this kind of move can unwind fast. Thursday's PCE report is the real event this week, and a hot number would erase today's relief in a single session. If you're inside your rate-lock window, this is a reasonable day to consider locking rather than gambling on more downside.

"Nearly 9 in 10 brokers expect non-QM volume to keep growing. That tells you where the opportunity is right now."

For Self-Employed Borrowers

A new industry survey found 88.4% of brokers expect non-QM volume to increase further, and self-employed and investor borrowers are the biggest reasons why. Bank statement and DSCR programs are built for exactly your situation, income that doesn't show up cleanly on a tax return. With conforming rates stuck in the mid-6% range anyway, there's no reason to force a square peg into a round hole.

📅Economic Watch

High Impact · This Week

May PCE Inflation Report (Thursday)

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge remains the week's biggest catalyst, especially after the FOMC lifted its year-end PCE forecast to 3.6% last week.

Medium Impact · Ongoing

Post-FOMC Rate Drift

Rates have eased for two straight sessions as markets unwind last week's hawkish reaction, though the move remains fragile heading into Thursday's data.

Background · Ongoing

Non-QM Broker Demand Data

This week's survey showing DSCR loans at 28-29% of non-QM originations is useful context for pipeline conversations even though it isn't a scheduled economic release.

⚡Quick Hits

📉30-year eases to 6.44%, a second straight day of relief. Thursday's PCE report decides if it sticks.

🏢DSCR loans are now roughly 28-29% of all non-QM originations nationally, trailing only bank statement loans.

🎯No-ratio programs are gaining traction as DSCR minimums tighten. Worth a look for marginal investor deals.