Morning Brief — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

📊Mortgage Market Snapshot

The 30-year fixed ticks back up to 6.47% this morning as yesterday's rally stalls out, with jumbo rates climbing 7 basis points on the week to 6.65%. This kind of two-steps-forward-one-step-back pattern is exactly what you'd expect heading into a major data release, traders are unwilling to commit to a direction until Thursday's PCE report actually lands.

On the non-QM side, AD Mortgage disclosed this week that it closed its fourth non-agency securitization of the year in May, with the top-rated tranche two times oversubscribed and solid demand further down the credit stack. That's a meaningful signal about investor appetite for non-QM paper even as conforming rates sit stubbornly in the mid-6% range, capital markets clearly aren't worried about credit quality in this space right now.

For brokers, today is a good day to prep rather than react. With PCE landing tomorrow morning, any file that's close to locking should have that conversation today, before the print potentially moves the market in either direction.

⚡ Intraday Watch

Thursday's May PCE report at 8:30 a.m. ET is less than 24 hours away. Expect elevated rate-sheet volatility into and immediately after the release.

📰Industry Headlines

Non-QM

AD Mortgage Closes Fourth Non-Agency Securitization of the Year, Deal Twice Oversubscribed

The wholesale lender's May securitization saw its AAA-rated tranche oversubscribed two times over, with strong demand extending further down the credit stack. Four securitizations through May puts the lender on pace for a record year, and reinforces that capital markets are hungry for non-QM paper even with conforming rates elevated.

Source: AD Mortgage, June 2026

Rate Watch

30-Year Fixed Ticks Back Up to 6.47% as Rally Stalls Ahead of PCE

After two days of easing, rates edged higher today as markets pause ahead of tomorrow's inflation data. Jumbo rates climbed 7 basis points on the week to 6.65%, widening the spread to conforming loans. This kind of pre-data chop is normal and shouldn't be read as a trend change in either direction.

Source: Daily rate trackers, June 2026

Housing Market

Jumbo-Conforming Spread Widens as Jumbo Rates Climb to 6.65%

The spread between jumbo and conforming 30-year rates has widened this week, with jumbo now averaging 6.65%, up 7 basis points. For high-balance borrowers, this is worth watching closely since a widening spread can change the math on whether a piggyback structure or a straight jumbo makes more sense.

Source: Market rate data, June 2026

Fed Policy

Traders Stay Cautious Ahead of Tomorrow's PCE, the Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge

With the FOMC's year-end PCE forecast now at 3.6%, tomorrow's actual print carries outsized weight. A number that confirms the Fed's hawkish shift would likely push rates higher into the weekend; a cooler read would validate hopes that last week's dot plot was overly aggressive.

Source: Federal Reserve, June 2026

💬Consumer & Investor Talking Points

"Capital markets just proved they're not worried about non-QM credit quality. That should tell you something."

For Real Estate Investors

AD Mortgage's latest securitization saw its top tranche oversubscribed two times over, the fourth deal of its kind this year. When institutional investors are lining up to buy non-QM paper, it means the market has confidence in how these loans are underwritten. That's good news if you've been hesitant about DSCR financing over credit-quality concerns.

"If your file is close to locking, tomorrow morning is not the time to be floating."

For Borrowers Near Their Lock Window

Thursday's PCE report is the single biggest data point of the month, and rates could move meaningfully in either direction within minutes of the release. If you're already comfortable with today's rate and your file is ready, locking today removes that risk entirely rather than betting on a coin flip.

"A widening jumbo spread changes the math on how you structure a high-balance purchase."

For Jumbo Borrowers

Jumbo rates just climbed to 6.65%, widening the gap versus conforming loans. Depending on your loan amount, a piggyback second or a different loan structure might now save you more than it did a few weeks ago. Let's run both scenarios side by side before you commit to a jumbo rate lock.

📅Economic Watch

High Impact · Tomorrow

May PCE Inflation Report (Thursday, 8:30 a.m. ET)

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge lands tomorrow morning and is the single most important data point of the week, given the FOMC's recent hawkish shift and elevated 3.6% year-end forecast.

Medium Impact · Recent

Jumbo-Conforming Spread Widening

Jumbo rates rose 7 basis points this week to 6.65%, a signal worth watching for high-balance borrowers evaluating loan structure options.

Background · Ongoing

Non-QM Securitization Demand

AD Mortgage's oversubscribed May deal is a useful proof point on institutional appetite for non-QM credit, supporting continued pricing competitiveness in the channel.

⚡Quick Hits

📦AD Mortgage's May securitization was 2x oversubscribed on the top tranche. Institutional demand for non-QM paper remains strong.

📈Jumbo rates climbed to 6.65%, widening the spread to conforming. Worth revisiting loan structure for high-balance files.

⏳Tomorrow's PCE report is the week's main event. Files near their lock window should have that conversation today.