Morning Brief — Friday, July 24, 2026

📊Mortgage Market Snapshot

Rates hold at 6.58% to close out the week, with the 10-year Treasury ticking up further to 4.68%, its highest close since January 2025, as oil prices and Middle East tensions continue to dominate the rate conversation heading into next week's FOMC meeting. This marks a fourth straight week of higher rates, a genuine trend rather than a single-week blip.

New home sales data released today showed a modest increase in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000, though that pace still lags 2025 levels, while this week's existing-home sales report showed a 2.4% monthly decline even as year-over-year sales rose 2.8%. Together, the housing data paints a picture of a market adjusting to elevated rates rather than collapsing under them.

Heading into the weekend and next week's Fed decision, this is a good moment to make sure every client understands the stakes: Tuesday and Wednesday's FOMC meeting, followed immediately by Thursday's June PCE report, represents the most concentrated two-day stretch of rate risk we've seen all summer.

⚡ This Week's Focus

Rates close a fourth straight week higher at 6.58%. Next week's FOMC decision and PCE report, back to back, is the biggest catalyst window of the summer.

📰Industry Headlines

Rate Watch

Rates Hold at 6.58% to Close a Fourth Straight Week Higher

The 10-year Treasury's climb to 4.68%, its highest close since January 2025, underscores that this is a genuine multi-week trend rather than a temporary spike. Oil prices and Middle East tensions remain the primary drivers heading into next week's Fed decision.

Source: Daily rate trackers, July 2026

Housing Market

New Home Sales Rise Modestly to 628,000 Annualized Pace, Still Below 2025 Levels

June's new home sales data showed a 1.6% increase from May, though the pace remains 5.6% below June 2025. The median new home price came in at $398,300, with 9.3 months of supply at the current sales rate, indicating builders still have meaningful room to move inventory.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, July 2026

Housing Market

Existing-Home Sales Fall 2.4% in June, But Are Still Up 2.8% From a Year Ago

NAR's June report showed sales at a 4.09 million annualized pace, with a median price of $440,600 and 4.6 months of inventory. The monthly decline coincides with rates climbing through the month, while the year-over-year gain shows underlying demand remains intact.

Source: National Association of REALTORS, July 2026

Fed Policy

Next Week's FOMC Meeting and PCE Report Represent the Summer's Biggest Rate-Risk Window

With Tuesday and Wednesday's Fed decision followed immediately by Thursday's June PCE report, this back-to-back stretch carries more concentrated rate risk than anything else on the calendar this summer. Both borrowers and brokers should plan accordingly.

Source: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis calendar, July 2026

💬Consumer & Investor Talking Points

"Four straight weeks of higher rates is a real trend. Let's plan around it rather than waiting for it to reverse on its own."

For Buyers Waiting for Relief

Rates have now risen for four consecutive weeks, driven by oil prices and Middle East tensions that show no clear sign of resolving soon. If your plan has been to wait for rates to come back down, this trend argues for revisiting that plan rather than assuming it's temporary.

"New and existing home sales data both suggest the market is adjusting, not collapsing. That's actually good news."

For Buyers Worried About Market Conditions

Both new and existing home sales showed continued activity this week even with rates at their highest level in nearly a year. That resilience is a genuinely positive sign that motivated buyers are finding ways to make deals work rather than sitting out entirely.

"Next week is the biggest two-day stretch of rate risk we've seen all summer. Let's have your lock decision made before it starts."

For Borrowers With a File Ready to Move

Tuesday and Wednesday's Fed meeting followed immediately by Thursday's PCE report is about as concentrated a risk window as the calendar gets. If your file is ready and you're comfortable with today's rate, locking before next week removes that uncertainty entirely.

📅Economic Watch

High Impact · Next Week

FOMC Meeting (July 28-29) and June PCE Report (July 30)

Back to back, these two events represent the most concentrated rate-risk window of the summer. A hawkish Fed statement paired with a hot PCE print could push rates meaningfully higher still.

Medium Impact · Recent

June Housing Data: New Sales Up, Existing Sales Down Monthly

New home sales rose modestly to 628,000 annualized while existing-home sales fell 2.4% for the month but remained up 2.8% year over year, a picture of a market adjusting to elevated rates.

Background · Ongoing

Fourth Straight Week of Higher Rates

This week's close extends a genuine multi-week trend driven by oil prices and Middle East tensions rather than a single data point.

⚡Quick Hits

📊Rates close a fourth straight week higher at 6.58%. This is a trend, not a blip.

🏡New home sales rose to 628,000 annualized; existing sales dipped monthly but are still up 2.8% year over year.

⚠️Next week's Fed meeting and PCE report back to back is the biggest rate-risk window of the summer. Plan accordingly.