Week in Review, Saturday, July 25, 2026

📊Mortgage Market Snapshot

Mortgage rates just wrapped their fourth straight week higher. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed averaged 6.58% for the week ending July 23, up from 6.55% the week before and now sitting at its highest level since August 2025. The 15-year fixed climbed to 5.96%, and the 10-year Treasury jumped 13 basis points on the week to 4.68%, its highest close since January 2025. This is not a one-week blip. Rates have moved higher in each of the last four Freddie Mac surveys, from 6.43% on July 2 to 6.58% today.

The driver is geopolitics and inflation psychology more than hard domestic data. Escalating tension in the Middle East has pushed crude oil above $100 a barrel, and that energy spike is feeding straight into inflation expectations just as the market braces for next week's FOMC decision and June PCE report. The Fed is still expected to hold at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, a fifth straight hold, but the probability of a hike later this year has jumped from roughly 12% to as high as 46% in the span of a single week, according to CME's FedWatch tool. That is a real shift from a "cuts are coming" narrative to "a hike is back on the table," and bond markets are pricing that uncertainty in right now.

For brokers, the practical impact is twofold. Borrowers floating a rate are taking on real risk into a two-day stretch, Fed decision Wednesday and PCE Thursday, that could push rates another 15 to 25 basis points in either direction, so this is a legitimate week to have the lock conversation with anyone closing in the next 30 to 45 days. On the purchase side, rising rates are colliding with a housing market that is actually giving buyers more room: inventory is up nearly 16% year over year and median asking prices have fallen for eight straight months. Higher rates paired with softer prices and more selection is a story worth walking clients through directly, rather than letting them assume high rates automatically means a bad time to buy.

⚡ This Week's Focus

Tuesday-Wednesday's FOMC decision (July 28-29) followed immediately by Thursday's June PCE report (July 30) is the single biggest catalyst window of the summer. A hawkish Fed statement paired with a hot PCE print could push the 30-year toward 6.75% or higher heading into August.

📰Industry Headlines

Rate Watch

30-Year Fixed Climbs to 6.58%, Its Highest Level Since August 2025

Freddie Mac's benchmark survey showed the 30-year fixed averaging 6.58% for the week ending July 23, up from 6.55% the prior week and marking the fourth straight weekly increase. The move was driven largely by escalating tension in the Middle East and renewed inflation concerns tied to oil prices pushing above $100 a barrel. The 15-year fixed followed the same path, rising to 5.96%, while the 10-year Treasury jumped 13 basis points on the week to 4.68%, its highest close since January 2025. For brokers, this is four consecutive weeks of higher rates, meaning borrowers who have been sitting on the fence waiting for relief are running out of runway before the fall selling season.

Source: Freddie Mac PMMS, July 2026

Fed Policy

Fed Widely Expected to Hold July 29, But Hike Odds for Later in 2026 Jump to Nearly 40%

The FOMC meets July 28-29 and is expected to leave the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting. Surging oil prices and stickier than expected inflation have pushed the probability of a hike later this year to roughly 38% to 46%, up sharply from just 12% a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Nearly half of FOMC members signaled support for a hike later this year at the June meeting. This is a real shift in narrative from "cuts are coming" to "a hike is back on the table," and it is exactly the kind of headline risk that should push undecided borrowers off the fence rather than waiting for a rate drop that may not show up in 2026.

Source: CME FedWatch, CBS News, July 2026

Non-QM

Non-QM Issuance on Pace to Top $100 Billion in 2026, a 46% Jump From Last Year

DSCR and bank statement products continue to carry the non-QM market, representing roughly half the collateral behind non-QM securitizations over the past several years. Full-year 2026 issuance is now projected north of $100 billion, up 46% from 2025, as investor appetite for non-agency credit stays strong even with conforming rates elevated. Fixed DSCR pricing this week ranged from 6.125% to 7.5% depending on credit and leverage, while ARM-structured DSCR loans priced as low as 5.125%, a meaningful discount to conforming rates. For brokers working investor clients, that ARM discount is a live conversation starter right now, especially for anyone planning to refinance or sell within five to seven years.

Source: National Mortgage News, July 2026

GSE Update

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Release Historical FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 Data

Both GSEs published long-awaited historical credit score data this month, covering loans acquired between April 2013 and September 2025, to help lenders and technology providers prepare for the shift to modernized credit scoring. This is a foundational step in the multi-year transition away from classic FICO as the sole scoring model used in GSE underwriting. Separately, updated property insurance and deductible requirements for project developments took effect for loan applications dated July 1 or later. Brokers should expect more guidance in the coming months as the credit score transition timeline firms up, and it is worth flagging to clients now so nobody is surprised when qualifying criteria eventually shifts.

Source: MBA Newslink, July 2026

Housing Market

Inventory Jumps 15.7% Year Over Year While Median Asking Price Falls for an Eighth Straight Month

There were 1.55 million homes for sale at the end of the month, up 15.7% from a year ago, giving buyers meaningfully more selection than they've had in years. The national median asking price fell 2.5% year over year to $430,000, the eighth consecutive month of annual declines, even as pending sales rose 3.7% year over year. More inventory, softer pricing, and improving buyer activity together make a genuinely useful story to tell hesitant buyers: waiting for rates to drop carries the risk of re-entering a market with less selection and firmer pricing once rates do eventually ease.

Source: Housing market data aggregators, July 2026

💬Consumer & Investor Talking Points

"Your rate today isn't your rate forever, but your purchase price today might be."

For Buyers on the Fence

Nobody wants to buy at 6.58% while headlines float a possible Fed hike. But look at what's happening on the inventory side: homes for sale are up nearly 16% from a year ago and median asking prices have fallen for eight straight months. If rates ease later this year the way Fannie Mae projects, down toward roughly 6.2% by Q4, you can always refinance. You can't go back in time and buy at today's softer prices with less competition. Let's run the numbers on a temporary buydown or a 5/1 ARM to bridge the gap until a refinance makes sense.

"If you're waiting for a 'good time' to buy a rental property, the DSCR market just handed you one."

For Real Estate Investors

Conforming rates are elevated, but DSCR pricing tells a different story: fixed DSCR loans are running 6.125% to 7.5% depending on credit and leverage, and ARM-structured DSCR products are pricing as low as 5.125%, a real discount to where conventional investment property loans sit right now. Combine that with median asking prices down 2.5% year over year and inventory up nearly 16%, and you've got more negotiating leverage on price plus a lending product that skips your tax returns entirely. If you've been sitting on cash waiting for the "right deal," this week's numbers make a strong case that the deal is already here.

"Being self-employed doesn't mean you sit out the market while W-2 borrowers move first."

For Self-Employed Borrowers

With conforming rates near their highest point of the year and a Fed decision plus a fresh PCE inflation print landing back to back next week, uncertainty is the dominant theme heading into August. Bank statement and P&L non-QM programs let self-employed borrowers qualify off real cash flow instead of a tax return optimized for deductions, and non-QM issuance is tracking toward its biggest year ever, over $100 billion in 2026, so lenders are actively competing for this business. If your tax returns understate your true income, this is the week to have that conversation rather than wait for rates to move in a direction nobody can promise.

📅Economic Watch

High Impact · Next Week

FOMC Rate Decision (July 28-29)

The Fed is expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but rising oil prices and stickier inflation have pushed hike odds for later in 2026 as high as 46% on some measures, up from just 12% a week ago. Watch Chair Powell's press conference language on Wednesday afternoon for any hint of a shift toward a tightening bias.

High Impact · Next Week

June PCE Inflation Report (July 30)

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge releases the morning after the FOMC decision, with early estimates pointing to core PCE holding near 3.3% year over year, still well above the Fed's 2% target. A hot print stacked on top of a hawkish-leaning Fed statement could be the one-two punch that pushes mortgage rates meaningfully higher into August.

Medium Impact · Recent

June Jobs Report

Nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 in June, well below the 115,000 consensus and a sharp slowdown from May's downwardly revised 129,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because labor force participation dropped to its lowest level since March 2021, a sign of underlying softness bond markets are still digesting.

Background · Ongoing

Oil Prices and Middle East Tensions

Crude prices pushing above $100 a barrel on escalating Middle East tensions are a big part of why both mortgage rates and Treasury yields have climbed for four straight weeks. It's the wildcard that could keep inflation elevated and Fed hike odds rising even if domestic data cools.

⚡Quick Hits

🎯DSCR ARM pricing as low as 5.125% this week is a real discount to conforming investment-property rates. Worth surfacing to any investor clients still comparing to their bank's rate sheet.

🛢️Oil above $100/barrel is doing more to move mortgage rates right now than any single domestic data point. Keep an eye on it heading into next week's Fed decision.

🏡Inventory is up 15.7% year over year while prices keep softening. That's the strongest "don't wait" argument for hesitant buyers in months.